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@hippy
You'll get the hang of pacing efforts as you do more. It's just the way it is. We don't 'know' what our max is over a period of time until we've done it and most likely done it a few times.
"averaged 310 watts in the warm up 5 minute effort"
That doesn't sound like a warmup unless you're doing a prologue.
Find a warmup protocol and stick to it (again, you'll nail it the more you do it)
Here's some overly complicated ones..
http://www.o2endurance.com/content/?cid=42&cat1=371&cat2=286&cat3=0&level=2&id=286