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Looking at the provisional start list it could play out in many different ways. Whilst Sagan has dominated early season, I think this is wide open. If both are delivered to the line in a bunch sprint I think Cav would probably beat Sagan. If it is selective, will Sagan get in the right move? Astana, BMC, Cannondale, Movistar, OPQS, Sky all have multiple cards to play, and possible contenders on other teams as well.
I hope it comes down to a bunch sprint and Cav nips it.