Football

You can read any paper or look on the BBC website or whereever and find just about any player connected with any club. Journos have to speculate to fill column inches. Mainly it is speculation; occasionally it is informed speculation.

It is generally best to ascertain who is the most informed of the speculators and follow what they say. I did this by following the tweets of that Spanish chap Guilliam whatsit. He told us that Chelsea were not talking to TFSW and he usually has the inside gen on Spanish players and managers. Later that day he was the man who broke the news that TFSW had joined Chelsea.

More often, knowing people with an ear inside the club itself helps.

Journos are correct of transfer speculation around 10% of the time, if that.

Much transfer speculation associated with the so-called big clubs is generated by agents, who assume that if they can plant some stories about Wenger/Abramovich/Fergie/Mancini, then they can drive up the price & wages of their player, thereby increasing their cut (depending on what sort of a deal they are on).