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@Bobbo
Supposedly there is a big announcement coming tomorrow that should start everything in terms of driver contracts. Until (if) that actually happens there is little point speculating on who is going where based on body language!?!
I have made my opinion of LH perfectly clear on this thread before, many times, however to say that going to Mercedes will rule him out future W/C is not realistic and a bit silly.
The merc team are where they are now as a result of the way Honda left F1, Ross Brawn found himself in a situation where he had a world beating car ready to go and by F1's extravagant terms virtually no budget for the season. In order to maximise the money he did have he slashed his staff to focus on the core of his team and get him through one season. At the end of that season his team was bought out by MB and he had the budget he needed to compete, now, three years later his staff is getting back to what he needs to compete on an even keel with the "big teams" it hasn't happened quicker because RB wanted the right team not a team. They will win a championship sooner rather than later.