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@DFP
The thing with these sorts of cases, is that it is one persons word against anothers. There is no way to prove the events either way.
The only thing that could possibly break the case is if somebody could confirm that Assange was sleeping in the same bed as the girl for the week following. If so, then she couldn't have been much upset.
But otherwise its impossible to pin blame, and in the absence of physical evidence, if the condom even broke at all.
Assange faces being locked up forever and ever and possibly tortured if he ends up entering a chain of captivity that lands him in American hands. That is an awful big deal for such unsubstantiat-able allegations.