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@hugo7
It would be intereting to see total sales in relation to frame material across the developed economies over the last 20years. That would give you a more actuate gage.
Just from looking at shops/the streets in London I think that bike use has increased, and by extension so has sales. Although steel has made a come back i'd guess a big chunk of road frames bought are still alu.
Its probably happening (and I'd be interested to know from someone in the industry), but as cost of carbon production comes down and demand goes up, I'd guess it would just be cheaper for manufactures to only produce carbon. I don't know enough about how moles work, but I'd also guess you could use the same shape, but lay up in different ways. My TCR composit looks like it's the same as an Advanced, I think its just the materials that ate different.
Overall that sounds like it benefits the manufactures on lots of fronts so I can't see it changing.
Which means alu will just end up like steel and be the preserve of small, custom, or novelty brands.