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@ewanmac
Not sure if it helps but the way I conceptualise my pacing in races is to run the first half purely off feel, and keeping things nice and steady and within myself- I keep half an eye on my pace to make sure I'm not staying too far behind target but a little doesn't matter... I'll get that back later. During the 3rd quarter is when the race begins for me and I think about holding my pace and/or position. I keep an eye on my pace and keep it steady and if I'm behind my target pace I slowly try to bring things back in line - if anyone tries to come through me I work a little harder to hold them off or stay on their shoulder, but without going overboard. The final quarter is when the fun starts and I make sure I race in as hard as possible, and run myself down onto my target.
It works for me and breaks the race up nicely.
Negative splitting is the way forward :)