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@moth
To be clear, if i was assigning probabilities to the alternate outcomes i've guessed at, my first guess would get a fair chunk. Maybe more than half.
And i'm aware that some of my other guesses seem a bit forced, but some combination of factors must explain why the claimed safety benefit of cycle helmets doesn't show up in national statistics.
For me the choice is clear because i'm keen to be consistent with my belief that armouring cyclists is a symptom of a skewed view of the problem, and i just fucking love cycling without a helmet. But even without those factors weighing in the balance, i don't think helmets are a safety benefit to people getting about on bikes, and i'm certain they aren't the most important thing.