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@Jung
By the by - just got back from going over the stage 18 route (by motorbike alas)
Col Agnel is an utter beast...it goes on for such a long way and has several long ramps up to 14% once you're out of the treeline. It's going to put a powerful hurt in before izoard and galibier. More ideal for bertie than schleckles I'd wager.
Still think Basso finishes 3rd.