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@andyp
100-1.
Gilbert is good, but has yet to show any aptitude whatsoever in the high mountains. This Tour is back loaded, with all 6 mountain stages condensed into 8 days racing and anyone who's been going full gas in the first week will be totally wasted by the time the race gets to Paris.
We all know how Jalabert achieved it, and Gilbert is good, but he's no Sean Kelly.