Referendum on AV

It's impossible to be sure, but I'd be fairly sure we would have. The reason we got a coalition is that Labour were very unpopular, but the Conversatives not popular enough to win that many more seats than they had before. So the Lib Dems ending up picking up a load of seats off Labour. That wouldn't really have changed with AV.

I wouldn't say labour were very unpopular (maybe unpopular in comparison to the last general election) - they got many more votes than Lib Dems yet have comparatively little power in the current government. But yeah, assuming that everyone who voted for labour/tories/lib dems put that choice as their first, the coalition would probably still have happened (judging by my small amount of knowledge on the subject)