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@andyp
I think the Italians will make it a hard race, so they'll sacrifice someone by firing them up the road early, then watching other teams chase. The worlds is unlike any other race in that you have riders in teams based on their country of birth competing against riders who normally are their team mates in trade teams. This invariably leads to alliances and, I hope, treachery.
If a break goes often it stays away if the mix is the right one in terms of both countries and trade teams. The Varese race in 2008 saw a large break go with 70 kms or so still to go and all the major nations were happy with the composition so it was the race winning move.