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@andyp
The warmest one. If it rains you're going to get wet regardless of what water proof you have. When climbing the heat you generate will keep you warm but when you descend the water chills very quickly and you'll be shivering at the end of a long descent.
This comes from 15 years' worth of cycling trips to the mountains.
The Dolomites are spectacular so have fun (and let's hope it stays dry).