Midsize and Large Cars. The safest midsize and large cars (Avalon, Camry, and Accord)
are as safe as the safest SUV (Suburban); average midsize and large cars are just as safe
as the average SUV. However, SUVs impose a greater risk on drivers of other vehicles
than do all types of cars. The combined risk of the average SUV (129) is about 30%
higher than that for the average large car (100) and 25% higher than that for the average
midsize car (105), while the safest SUV (Suburban, 111) has at least a 40% higher
combined risk than the three safest midsize and large cars (Avalon, 63; Camry, 72; and
Accord, 79).
Subcompact and Compact Cars. The safest subcompact (Civic and Jetta) and compact
(626 and Altima) car models are as safe to their drivers as the average SUV (see Figures
2 and 3, and Table A5 in the appendix). When one considers the combined risk, including
those killed in the other vehicle in two-vehicle crashes, then the safest subcompact and
compact models are actually safer than the average SUV. Moreover, the combined risk
for the average subcompact or compact car (147 and 136, respectively) is only slightly
higher than that for the average SUV (129).
A critical aspect of the dispute regarding whether light or small cars are relatively
dangerous for their occupants is the very large range in the risk to drivers of subcompact
cars (see Figure 2). At one end are the low-risk Jetta and Civic models, as just mentioned,
but at roughly twice their risk are the Cavalier, Escort, and Neon models (and their
twins). Those three very popular models are responsible for increasing the average risk to
drivers of subcompact cars. Does the safety record of those three models prove that light
cars are unsafe? We present evidence that there is no such simple rule. Might it instead
suggest that relatively inexpensive cars tend to be unsafe? Perhaps. In any event, the
argument that the low weight of cars with high fuel economy has resulted in many excess
deaths is unfounded; that by paying careful attention to safety in vehicle design, smaller
cars can be, and indeed have been, made as safe as larger ones.
Minivans. Of all major vehicle types, minivans have the lowest risk and the lowest
combined risk. This is probably due in part to the fact that minivans tend to be driven
with special care, often being used for transporting a family’s children. Relatively few
minivan drivers are found to be young males (see appendix, Table A3). But the relatively
low risk in minivans is probably not all due to driver behavior. The popular minivans are
built on car rather than pickup truck platforms, which may reduce the risk to their drivers
and certainly reduces the risk to other drivers (Gabler and Hollowell 1998; Hollowell and
Gabler 1996; Joksch 1998, 2000). An example of this is that the car-based body of the
Grand Cherokee has about 20% lower risk to its drivers than the truck-based Cherokee, a
suggestive though statistically marginal result.
Pickup Trucks. Pickup trucks, as driven, are riskier than any other major type of vehicle.
The risk to drivers of the average pickup is higher than that for minivans, SUVs, and
large and midsize cars, although it is not significantly different from that for the average
compact and subcompact car. The combined risk is much higher than that for other
vehicle types. This high risk is partly due to pickup trucks being driven more in rural
areas. It is well established that risk is high in rural driving due to factors such as higher
speeds, more miles traveled, and poor road design and conditions.
Light trucks, especially pickups and to a lesser extent SUVs, are responsible for the
deaths of many people in other vehicles, as shown by the vertical scale in Figures 2 and
This result supports earlier findings by Joksch (2000, pp. 9–10), who examined the
outcomes of two-vehicle crashes reported by the police. He found that there are twice as
many deaths in car-to-pickup crashes as in car-to-car crashes and 1.8 as many deaths in
SUV-to-car crashes as in car-to-car crashes. The pattern in car-to-truck crashes is that
people die in the truck somewhat less often than in car-to-car crashes, while people die in
the car much more often. Nevertheless, trucks are not safer than cars: SUV and pickup
users are at unusually high risk of death in one-vehicle crashes, such that drivers of
average SUVs face the same risk as drivers of average midsize and large cars while
drivers of average pickups face the same risk as drivers of average compact and
subcompact cars. A substantial part of the risks light trucks impose on other drivers is
associated with the design of trucks (Gabler and Hollowell 1998; Hollowell and Gabler
1996; Joksch 1998, 2000).
Import Luxury and Sports Cars. Import luxury cars have the lowest combined risk, while
sports cars have the highest combined risk, of all vehicle types studied. The relatively
high fraction of young males driving sports cars suggests that much, but not all, of their
high risk is associated with aggressive driving.
Midsize and Large Cars. The safest midsize and large cars (Avalon, Camry, and Accord)
are as safe as the safest SUV (Suburban); average midsize and large cars are just as safe
as the average SUV. However, SUVs impose a greater risk on drivers of other vehicles
than do all types of cars. The combined risk of the average SUV (129) is about 30%
higher than that for the average large car (100) and 25% higher than that for the average
midsize car (105), while the safest SUV (Suburban, 111) has at least a 40% higher
combined risk than the three safest midsize and large cars (Avalon, 63; Camry, 72; and
Accord, 79).
Subcompact and Compact Cars. The safest subcompact (Civic and Jetta) and compact
(626 and Altima) car models are as safe to their drivers as the average SUV (see Figures
2 and 3, and Table A5 in the appendix). When one considers the combined risk, including
those killed in the other vehicle in two-vehicle crashes, then the safest subcompact and
compact models are actually safer than the average SUV. Moreover, the combined risk
for the average subcompact or compact car (147 and 136, respectively) is only slightly
higher than that for the average SUV (129).
A critical aspect of the dispute regarding whether light or small cars are relatively
dangerous for their occupants is the very large range in the risk to drivers of subcompact
cars (see Figure 2). At one end are the low-risk Jetta and Civic models, as just mentioned,
but at roughly twice their risk are the Cavalier, Escort, and Neon models (and their
twins). Those three very popular models are responsible for increasing the average risk to
drivers of subcompact cars. Does the safety record of those three models prove that light
cars are unsafe? We present evidence that there is no such simple rule. Might it instead
suggest that relatively inexpensive cars tend to be unsafe? Perhaps. In any event, the
argument that the low weight of cars with high fuel economy has resulted in many excess
deaths is unfounded; that by paying careful attention to safety in vehicle design, smaller
cars can be, and indeed have been, made as safe as larger ones.
Minivans. Of all major vehicle types, minivans have the lowest risk and the lowest
combined risk. This is probably due in part to the fact that minivans tend to be driven
with special care, often being used for transporting a family’s children. Relatively few
minivan drivers are found to be young males (see appendix, Table A3). But the relatively
low risk in minivans is probably not all due to driver behavior. The popular minivans are
built on car rather than pickup truck platforms, which may reduce the risk to their drivers
and certainly reduces the risk to other drivers (Gabler and Hollowell 1998; Hollowell and
Gabler 1996; Joksch 1998, 2000). An example of this is that the car-based body of the
Grand Cherokee has about 20% lower risk to its drivers than the truck-based Cherokee, a
suggestive though statistically marginal result.
Pickup Trucks. Pickup trucks, as driven, are riskier than any other major type of vehicle.
The risk to drivers of the average pickup is higher than that for minivans, SUVs, and
large and midsize cars, although it is not significantly different from that for the average
compact and subcompact car. The combined risk is much higher than that for other
vehicle types. This high risk is partly due to pickup trucks being driven more in rural
areas. It is well established that risk is high in rural driving due to factors such as higher
speeds, more miles traveled, and poor road design and conditions.
Light trucks, especially pickups and to a lesser extent SUVs, are responsible for the
deaths of many people in other vehicles, as shown by the vertical scale in Figures 2 and
This result supports earlier findings by Joksch (2000, pp. 9–10), who examined the
outcomes of two-vehicle crashes reported by the police. He found that there are twice as
many deaths in car-to-pickup crashes as in car-to-car crashes and 1.8 as many deaths in
SUV-to-car crashes as in car-to-car crashes. The pattern in car-to-truck crashes is that
people die in the truck somewhat less often than in car-to-car crashes, while people die in
the car much more often. Nevertheless, trucks are not safer than cars: SUV and pickup
users are at unusually high risk of death in one-vehicle crashes, such that drivers of
average SUVs face the same risk as drivers of average midsize and large cars while
drivers of average pickups face the same risk as drivers of average compact and
subcompact cars. A substantial part of the risks light trucks impose on other drivers is
associated with the design of trucks (Gabler and Hollowell 1998; Hollowell and Gabler
1996; Joksch 1998, 2000).
Import Luxury and Sports Cars. Import luxury cars have the lowest combined risk, while
sports cars have the highest combined risk, of all vehicle types studied. The relatively
high fraction of young males driving sports cars suggests that much, but not all, of their
high risk is associated with aggressive driving.
http://www.aceee.org/pubs/t021full.pdf