I stand by what I said: you don't understand statistics.
Edited to add - I've watched a lot of allegedly smart people working for big financial institutions lose a fuck load of money because of naive assumptions in their modelling. I pointed it out to quite a few of them.
Yeah, smart people are idiots.
And you are right there is no possible way figures can be estimated for future events.
Yeah, smart people are idiots.
And you are right there is no possible way figures can be estimated for future events.
You win.