Who would you vote for? - Tonight is the night

All projections are based on assumptions, most of which are naive and don't stand up to the test of reality.

At best, they are useful in an explanatory sense in gaming out potential visions of the future. But they aren't much use in judging what the future will actually look like.

Your comment, which I hadn't realised was made in jest, would have been a judgment on what the future would actually look like, rather than hypothesising about what could happen were the world to continue on a particular trend.

Hence my initial comment. Which, you may have noticed, I retracted.

Your comment, which I hadn't realised was made in jest

No really - no joke:

1 in 3 black (African American) males born in 2000 will likely end up in prison.

Similarly we can say "XX% of children will leave school in the UK with XX or less qualifications".