• Figures about the future (all figures about the future) are - now this may come as a shock to you (!) - projections.

    So if I say:

    "this generation is likely to suffer a greater degree of obesity and diabetes - leading to an increase in death and a great strain on the resources of the health service"

    It adds nothing to point out that are not dead yet "so how do you know".

    All projections are based on assumptions, most of which are naive and don't stand up to the test of reality.

    At best, they are useful in an explanatory sense in gaming out potential visions of the future. But they aren't much use in judging what the future will actually look like.

    Your comment, which I hadn't realised was made in jest, would have been a judgment on what the future would actually look like, rather than hypothesising about what could happen were the world to continue on a particular trend.

    Hence my initial comment. Which, you may have noticed, I retracted.

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