Lugged carbon frame... Is it safe?

nah cos if you lock the wheel (which usually happens mid-bunny hop in a skid) the forward momentum of your body weight + bike is actually just being slowed by the tyre skidding over the road (ie friction between tyre and road), and the actual force applied to the rear triangle by your feet is bugger all (it's static).
i don't reckon there's actually that much force going through the rear triangle, cos the deceleration of the rear wheel is happening under very little load (it happens mid-air when you bunny-hop the rear wheel) as your body weight is not involved at that point.

am i barking up the wrong tree? does anyone have any actual force measurements from anywhere?

Close enough, I wouldn't be to worried about the the dropouts being pulled off by skidding since nearly all the force is transfered to the bottom bracket via the chain, not into the dropouts. I'd be skeptical about using an old Alum-carbon lugged job as they have a nasty habit of comming apart at the lugs, well the mountain bike ones I've seen did.