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  • i read 'fooled by randomness'.

    to sum it up - none of the traders or bankers have the first clue about what they are doing, or why what happened happened, but, crucially, the successful ones think they do.
    whereas in reality, some of them got lucky, and some of them didn't.

    good book.

    'The Black Swan' expands on the randomness theme and urges you to at least consider the very very unlikely as a possible.

    e.g. We're all turkeys forecasting our life expectancy on Dec 1st using the excellent data we collected over the last 6 months.

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