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@chris_crash
i don't think Obama will win, and here is my reasoning:
My grandparents on my dads side represent the largest voting group in the USA (retired seniors, with collage educated children), they are also registered as independents (though they lean to the Democrats). I was visiting them before heading out here, and we talked about polotics a bit. they gave me 4 reasons they will not be voting for obama, 2 are policy based, and 2 personal. Lets start with policy: he is seen as some one who will raise taxes (low taxes make americans happy), and he will not give as much support to troops in Iraq. The seccond is debateable, but we all know preceptions and not facts win elections. The personal reasons where they did not like his minester, who they saw as a black radical, along the lines of Malcom X, and the did not like his wife.