Russian invasion of Ukraine

Reported 4k North Korean casualties out of the 10k sent already. Savage attrition.

Nobody’s told them that Ukrainian troops don’t have a preset kill limit.

(Joking of course but at a certain point there must be a hefty psychological impact on the Ukrainians from such abject disregard for that amount of lives)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JQvG-ik_Gg

Drone operators "who found it easier to eliminate North Korean soldiers than their previous training targets."

There's some hope on twitter that the Russian economy is so dire that Putin and the war can't last much longer. E.g. Jason Jay Smart of Kyiv Post:

"Russia’s Economic Collapse: The Looming End of Putin’s Regime

The Russian economy is imploding, threatening Vladimir Putin’s grip on power. His Keynesian strategy to counter Western sanctions—based on subsidized spending and artificially low interest rates—has backfired catastrophically, plunging the country into a boom-and-bust cycle now entering its most devastating phase.

The housing market, propped up by state-subsidized mortgages at rates as low as 7% (despite real inflation estimated at 27% by Dr. Steve Hanke), is collapsing. Mortgage debt has surged to over 40% of bank lending portfolios, while household debt is at a record 22% of GDP. Once dominating housing transactions, mortgages now make up only 20% of sales, with 80% being cash purchases. Sellers are slashing prices by up to 50%, and non-performing loans are soaring, threatening to sink regional banks, which hold 40% of the market. Developers, crippled by overbuilding during the boom, are defaulting on bonds, leading to widespread losses across the construction sector.

The ripple effects are devastating. The Russian stock market has seen all sectors decline sharply, with Gazprom down 16.7%, Ozon 23.7%, and RUSAL 23.8% in just one month. Inflation has spiraled out of control, forcing the cost of potatoes to rise by 80% this year alone, with car prices expected to jump 20% after New Year’s. The ruble has lost over 10% of its value three times in a single month, reflecting deep structural weaknesses. Russia’s national budget, calculated on oil prices of $72 per barrel, faces severe strain as global production rises and prices fall. Experts predict the ruble may require a devaluation of 22-35% to sustain government spending.

International support is absent. China, dealing with its own economic woes—including an 18% youth unemployment rate and a real estate debt crisis—has limited capacity to assist Russia. Furthermore, China conducts > 60% of its trade with the U.S. and Europe versus around 2% with Russia and is unlikely to risk sanctions for a marginal ally.

Public dissatisfaction is growing as the economy crumbles. Living costs are skyrocketing, wages are stagnant, and layoffs are widespread. In 2024, over 130,000 jobs were cut in 457 companies, including global tech giants like Tesla, Amazon, and Google. The regime’s promise of economic stability is collapsing, and so is Putin’s political contract with his people.

Historically, economic collapse has toppled autocrats, and Russia’s current trajectory mirrors these patterns. Putin’s inability to stabilize the economy or shield ordinary Russians from hardship is eroding his legitimacy among both the public and the elites. With rising discontent, fractured loyalty from oligarchs, and economic freefall, Russia is on the brink of political upheaval. The collapse of Putin’s regime may no longer be a distant prospect—it is rapidly becoming an imminent reality."

Is that Ukraine punching through towards the artillery unit, or Ruzzia nearly enveloping them? Hoping it’s the former but it looks like the latter.

I’m currently in SE Asia and the number of Russian tourists is pretty amazing both in the big cities and on the coast. I have a feeling if the middle class can have their tropical winter breaks in the middle of the war, Putin won’t lack for support.

similar in middle east

Been like that since day one. In some markets they’ve gone from the fifth largest source market to number one. Absolutely nuts.

the number of Russian tourists is pretty amazing

A couple of weeks ago I entered an immigration queue in an SE Asian airport. At some point I realised that I was hemmed in by Russian tourists on all sides as the lanes slowly moved forwards.
Found the experience unpleasant, the idea that while their country is launching missile attacks on civilians on a daily basis, the aggressors can just nip off on an Asian beach vacation willy nilly.

IMO its oversimplification that every Russian = Aggressor.

One of Ukraine’s largest coal mines, one of their few remaining, has now shut, likely being taken over by Russia imminently. It’ll hit their ailing steel industry hard, which will in turn hit their international income and their defence capabilities.

It can take a generation to set up an internationally competitive steel industry in the best of times. More than a black eye, this is a broken bone for Ukraine.

Ukraine has had months to plan for this. They've already increased their coke imports from the US, which is one of many countries which can supply it. Ukraine's allies also know that coke is a priority and they've also had months to prepare. So it's absurd to suggest that the steel industry will be killed off by this. But you always want to push your pro-Putin Ukraine-is-finished message. Your time would be better spent learning about the damage Ukraine has just done to Russia's gas exports. Start here. https://www.ft.com/content/cb2d3f63-7a5c-47d4-9282-f77d5660562b

And let’s not forget the damage Putin has done to russia, its people, its standing in the world once the war ends.
And then there is its economy, being forced to sell gas for bobbins to India and China, the rise of NATO on its borders and its arms export industry in the toilet.
Didn’t exactly go to plan did it?

But you always want to push your pro-Putin Ukraine-is-finished message.

? Simmer down on the fighting words. I’m guessing you’re confusing me with someone else, Nick, because that’s frankly an antipodal misapprehension of my sympathies and a poor analysis of my post history.

In response to your inferences: I never claimed the loss of Povrosk would kill the Ukrainian steel industry. If you’d bothered to read the (rarely pro-Putin) NYT article that I linked, you’d have seen the following:

Now, the mine’s closure is expected to send shock waves through the economy. Steel production is projected to drop by more than half, from 7.5 million tons this year to less than 3 million next year, according to Oleksandr Kalenkov, head of Ukraine’s steel makers’ association. The fallout will affect trade — metal and steel products were Ukraine’s second-largest export last year — reduce tax revenues and strip the military of essential materials for armor production.

“The impact, in all its aspects, is tremendous,” Mr. Kalenkov said.

Elaborating on my point that establishing a successful national steel industry is very challenging, their talent and capital will move elsewhere, possibly outside of Ukraine and possibly outside of the steel industry. Assuming it takes 5 years to kick the Russians out, trying to reconstruct a competitive industrial base with a de-skilled, outdated and/or inexperienced workforce will add additional difficulty. Ukraine’s natural resource environment lends itself to steel manufacturing, so the industry will almost certainly spring up again, but whether or not it will be Ukrainians (and not foreigners) benefitting most from it will remain to be seen.

Thanks for the tangent on the impact of the war on Russian gas exports: I’m thoroughly acquainted with the subject.

As to the limitations of foreign coal imports, I defer to a brief statement by the aforementioned Mr. Kalenkov: https://mediacenter.org.ua/loss-of-key-mine-near-pokrovsk-threatens-to-drive-up-steel-prices-warns-ukrainian-metallurgists-union-president/

Finally, acknowledging how Ukraine’s situation is becoming objectively worse is hardly pushing a pro-Putin message; I’d argue it’s the precise opposite because it highlights the continued need for increased international support.

Very sorry, I think I confused you with fred.

Now that hurt.

No worries, be well man.