-
I agree that history and metrics have a definite influence on price but given the current economic conditions, isn't something to anticipate repeating. Cryptocurrency is no longer in its infancy stage. Smart money has discovered how to exploit and manipulate new investors that have arrived late to the game. I understand that human psychology is the basis of how market cycles operate and believe that opportunity is right around the corner. As soon as the market has absorbed/liquidated enough traders to believe that price is going up, that is when they will pivot and start liquidating the next group of traders convinced of price to be going lower. Exchanges rinse out leverage, recycle the funds to create liquidity then repeat the same cycle in both directions. I can wait untill open interest dies
You are reading a single comment by @skrtluv and its replies.
Click here to read the full conversation.
skrtluv
It sounds like you are basically saying that bitcoin will go up and it will go down, which I agree with. But no one can predict short term price movements.
However, there are metrics that people track to get some insight on where we are in the cycle, which give a bit more certainty than going on cubes alone.
One is average price paid per coin on exchanges vs market price, which gives some structure to the 'weak seller' effects you are describing. It's explained here, about half way down, along with a couple of other indicators.
https://www.lynalden.com/december-2024-newsletter/
It's currently suggesting we are in the middle between massively over and under valued.
Also the power law stuff, which (last time I looked) was implying a high for this cycle of around $180k some time next year, then a low of maybe $60-80k
https://giovannisantostasi.medium.com/the-bitcoin-power-law-theory-962dfaf99ee9
Then you get the super cyclers who say that it is about to go critical with the US/Trump buying, other countries following, etc.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/aliceliu/2024/10/28/bitcoin-may-shift-to-a-super-cycle-breaking-the-crypto-market-norm/
So you might see $60k again as the bottom of the next cycle, it might not go that low, or there may not be another cyclical drop at all!