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It sounds like you are basically saying that bitcoin will go up and it will go down, which I agree with. But no one can predict short term price movements.
However, there are metrics that people track to get some insight on where we are in the cycle, which give a bit more certainty than going on cubes alone.
One is average price paid per coin on exchanges vs market price, which gives some structure to the 'weak seller' effects you are describing. It's explained here, about half way down, along with a couple of other indicators.
https://www.lynalden.com/december-2024-newsletter/
It's currently suggesting we are in the middle between massively over and under valued.Also the power law stuff, which (last time I looked) was implying a high for this cycle of around $180k some time next year, then a low of maybe $60-80k
https://giovannisantostasi.medium.com/the-bitcoin-power-law-theory-962dfaf99ee9Then you get the super cyclers who say that it is about to go critical with the US/Trump buying, other countries following, etc.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/aliceliu/2024/10/28/bitcoin-may-shift-to-a-super-cycle-breaking-the-crypto-market-norm/So you might see $60k again as the bottom of the next cycle, it might not go that low, or there may not be another cyclical drop at all!
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frank9755
@skrtluv
Market cap is shrinking, Michael Saylor stopped buying, Fed putting a pause on rate cuts, BlackRock holding the price near 100k to wipe out moon boys venge trading to recover losses trading on leverage...
Post edit: Seeing that no one is here to defend the idea that the Bullrun is still in full swing, I will just clarify my stance on cryptocurrency. I believe there are higher prices in the future but not until the distribution of weak handed late comers are shaken out. Some of whom have invested money they cannot afford and will panic sell forcing price to accelerate in whatever direction it's heading. Now that interest rates are coming down, it will be cheaper to borrow against whatever assets to use as collateral or personal credit available. I hope to be wrong but there maybe a point where price will surpass all time highs to trap new buyers who will again experience a retrace to the price from where they bought. All the weak hands left in the game who bought above 100k will exit their positions and trigger another sell off. Only then once all the trading accounts have been liquidated will there be a pivot in price... I'm hesitant to short because the experienced folk know that scam wicks are a sure way for exchanges to make profit with minimal risk.
See you at 60k