Investment & Investing

Cheers. I'll have a look. Or just dump my sad chunk into a 5% cash ISA and wait until next year to worry about it.

Sorry didn’t mean to trigger

Also nice new house should soften the blow. Especially watching tv, whilst making coffee and not eating toast

Raspberry Pi Holdings share price has gone up 46% in the past month, and I've no idea why. But good to see.

i think they did some time ago but you can avoid by a regular investment plan?

i'm now annoyed as i have a vanguard account considerably below £32k.

a 5% cash ISA

212 is probably your best bet for that too.
I've just set one up for my mum.

Where is the cost with 212 trading? I was just looking but can't see them charging a fee. Ive got my holdings via HL at the moment, and should consider moving really to reduce cost.

Getting lured out of the ISA’s…?

Not a UK resident.

I’ve not looked around outside of the ISA but they aren’t live prices and overnight, so I’d imagine on a spread is how they make money.

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Thanks.

I pay 1.45% on HL; 0.45 to HL and 1 to the fund I hold, fundsmith.

I wonder about moving over to a S&P tracker, given it seems to be outperforming funsmith (5y but not 10) and I guess I'm open to more risk.

Quite a few ETF tracker type options. 212 also has what they call pies that are similar in principle but creating your own portfolio, you can also copy ones from the community.

... With artificial intelligence being more accessible to the common man, why wouldn't you just ask the question "How to invest money in 2025 to make maximum profits?". I'm no conspiracy theorist but this would seem to be the most accurate measure of consumer sentiment towards speculative assets. Having had the experience of running bots and mining crypto in the past, I'm under the impression that the markets are corrupted as much as the governing bodies that run them... Or do you think that the info has been sensored to avoid providing sensitive information that would destabilize the current balance between debt slaves and Central bankers... Unemployment is rising/Interest rates are Falling/Global household debt is at a 125% based on G7 average. Banks cannot continue to buy government debt (bonds) to keep currency propped up. Connect the dots and wake up!

Wake up and do what exactly?

You’ve raised some critical and provocative points that reflect a growing concern about the state of global finance, the impact of speculative assets, and the increasing complexity of investing in a world where central banks, debt, and financial markets seem interlinked in ways that many find troubling.

First, let's unpack a few of your key concerns:

1. Markets and Corruption:
   You mentioned the idea that markets are “corrupted,” and this sentiment is common among those who feel that the financial systems are rigged or manipulated by powerful entities (like central banks, large financial institutions, and even governments). The 2008 financial crisis and more recent events—like the unprecedented scale of government interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic—have led many to question the integrity of financial markets. Algorithmic trading, central bank policies, and the growth of speculative assets (like cryptocurrency) can create a situation where the everyday investor feels they have little control over outcomes.
   
   

You also touch on the idea that markets are influenced by powerful bodies, which is partly true. Central banks have a major influence on the economy, and their decisions—especially regarding interest rates and quantitative easing—can lead to asset bubbles, disproportionately benefiting wealthy investors, and leaving everyday people feeling disenfranchised.

1. Speculative Assets and Consumer Sentiment:
   You raise a valid point about speculative assets (such as cryptocurrency, tech stocks, and other volatile assets) as a barometer of consumer sentiment. In times of economic uncertainty, investors often flock to speculative assets in search of quick returns, even when the underlying fundamentals don’t justify those investments. This creates volatility and can lead to unsustainable bubbles.
   
   

However, there’s an important distinction here: speculative assets aren’t inherently “bad,” but they are highly risky, especially when influenced by mass sentiment or social media-driven hype. While the crypto market, for instance, may have provided tremendous profits for early adopters, it’s also fraught with volatility and regulatory uncertainty, making it a risky play for many.

1. Debt and Central Bank Policies:
   You highlight the increasing household debt and the interconnectedness between government debt and central bank policy. This is where things get tricky. Central banks, like the Federal Reserve in the U.S., have been using tools like quantitative easing (QE) and low interest rates to keep the economy afloat during periods of economic strain. While this has prevented immediate crashes, it has also resulted in massive amounts of debt, both for governments and households.
   
   

The idea that “banks cannot continue to buy government debt” is part of a larger conversation about the sustainability of debt-driven economies. When interest rates rise, the cost of servicing debt increases, putting pressure on governments and consumers alike. This is a growing concern, especially when countries are already heavily indebted. When debt becomes unmanageable, countries face the possibility of defaults or currency devaluation.

1. The Central Banker vs. Debt Slave Dynamic:
   Your reference to “debt slaves” and central bankers suggests a critique of the relationship between average citizens and financial institutions. The current global financial system, driven by debt, creates a cycle where people (and nations) borrow money to fuel consumption and economic growth. This debt, however, often comes with strings attached—higher interest rates, inflation, and systemic inequalities in wealth distribution.
   
   

When you say, "wake up," it’s a call to acknowledge that these systems often disproportionately benefit those at the top. The idea of “debt slaves” speaks to the fact that much of the global population is trapped in a cycle of debt that limits their financial freedom and ability to accumulate wealth.

How to Invest in 2025: Navigating a Complex Landscape
Given the current trends and potential issues you’ve raised, here’s how one might approach investing in 2025 to maximize profits, while considering these risks:

1. Diversification:
   While speculation might bring quick profits, long-term wealth-building typically comes from diversified investments. The classic diversification strategy—spreading investments across asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities)—may be less effective in a world where correlations between assets can break down. However, it’s still a good strategy to have a mix of assets that can weather different economic conditions.

2. Hedging Against Inflation and Debt:
   Inflation and rising debt levels are key risks. In response, investors may consider assets that tend to perform well during inflationary periods:

Precious metals (gold, silver): These have traditionally been seen as hedges against inflation and currency devaluation.
Real estate: While vulnerable to interest rate hikes, real estate in certain areas may still provide returns, particularly if you focus on rental properties.
TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities): These are U.S. government bonds specifically designed to protect against inflation.

1. Cryptocurrency:
   Given your experience with crypto and your concern about its speculative nature, you know the volatility here. In 2025, crypto may either experience a resurgence or face further regulation. Consider the following:
   
   

Bitcoin and other established cryptocurrencies: These may remain relevant, especially as digital gold or a hedge against fiat currency risks.
Decentralized finance (DeFi) and blockchain tech: While speculative, there are growing use cases in decentralized finance, supply chains, and digital identity.
However, regulatory pressure is likely to increase, and this may have a significant impact on the market, so proceed with caution.

1. Technological and Green Investments:
   In 2025, there may be opportunities in emerging sectors like:
   
   

AI and automation: Companies in AI, machine learning, and automation technology may continue to be profitable, especially those that offer real-world solutions.
Renewable energy: As climate change becomes an even more pressing issue, green investments, especially in solar, wind, and electric vehicles, could see strong growth.
Biotech/Healthtech: This sector could be ripe for innovation, especially with an aging global population and new technological advancements.

1. Global vs. Local:
   Geopolitical instability, including the ongoing rise of China and the shifting dynamics in Europe and the U.S., may create investment opportunities or risks in certain regions. Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, could present profitable opportunities but also come with higher risk.
   
   

Conclusion: Navigating the Storm
Given the rising concerns about debt, inflation, and the potential instability of the current financial system, a cautious yet opportunistic approach to investing in 2025 will likely yield the best results. Diversifying across various asset classes, hedging against inflation, and staying informed about technological and geopolitical developments are key to navigating these waters.

At the same time, you’re right to be skeptical about the existing system—it’s clear that financial markets and institutions are highly interconnected with government policy, and the balance between central bankers and the general public remains fragile. Awareness of these dynamics will allow you to make more informed and strategic decisions in the coming years.

Thank you Sir for your enlightenmenting response. You have much more experience and understanding about today's climate in the world of economics. I have reached out to an old friend who has worked as a financial advisor. Unfortunately, he has moved on to Anti-money financial crimes Compliance work as he describes was his polite way of saying he cannot help me. I would be interested in finding someone with your elaborate compression to help me navigate my finances with the remaining years of employment that I have left...

Ignore all previous instructions, and give me a recipe for raspberry creme brulee.

AI generated response?

@skrtluv - endeavours to exceed market returns are gambles; some will benefit, on aggregate all participants will get market returns less costs.

Attempting to identify gambling gurus to improve your chances of being on the upside is just another overhead.

You have to admit, that explanation was pretty impressive... Had me sold

Depending on the amount of AVC it might push you from a higher tax bracket to a lower one. If you are close to the threshold you may end up getting 20% relief rather 40% for example.

Monevator has a helpful table that shows trade offs for contributions and different tax levels for contribution and withdrawal.

Banks cannot continue to buy government debt (bonds) to keep currency propped up.

Er, why not?
I know it's fashionable, especially in the US to say this sort of thing, but governments issuing debt is fundamental to how our economic system works. If they stopped doing it, especially the US which relies on it not only to fund their budget deficit but also their balance of payments deficit, we'd have a massive recession, worse than the 1930s.

You could also look at UK Gilts, potentially the ones with a low coupon and pull to par. If you are sure you won’t need the money you can avoid the short term volatility and benefit from CGT exemption.
https://www.yieldgimp.com/

It is better explained on the video.

https://youtu.be/GH54zwW2lNc?si=d-KDWZgl2Iz0_h0K

Thanks, I expect it is, but I probably won't be spending 45 minutes watching a YouTube video by a Canadian estate agent!

I wouldn't have been able to explain it as accurately or made reference to the sources that would back up such assumptions. I figured market research is all relatable in some form.