General Election 2024

This.

Idk how anyone who's worked in massive organisations, be it State or Private, can say there isn't waste.

The thing that struck me about GE24 was that in the grand scheme of things there wasn't a huge difference between UKIP and Reform.

To me that indicates a ceiling.

Obviously it can change. But I feel that the RE media has a hardon for the "Reform making gains" narrative.

Not even massive organisations; I worked in a small local ice-cream hut for a couple of summers, and the amount of ice-cream that got "wasted" straight into my mouth was astonishing

Good question, I’m not sure but the impression I got (which wasn’t contradicted by the usual Reform fanboys) was that they were standing and weren’t winning. That’s said, if Reform do get elected as councillors I suspect it will end as it did for UKIP councillors ie not well.

I think I’ve mentioned before that I knew a Reform candidate at the last GE who was named in Question Time/disowned by Reform; he always seemed a twat but having subsequently seen some of his online views is a disgusting racist twat. Top vetting by Reform (more likely his crime was saying the quiet part out loud) but how are they going to get enough candidates without hinterland to stand let alone get enough MPs elected to get Farage as PM (even with some sort of coalition, surely Reform would have to be the biggest party?).

As hugo7 says above, there appears to be a ceiling for UKIP/Brexit Party/Reform and that’s even with their GB News propoganda channel. And while those who support the cult of Farage love him (and I’d suspect that would wither if he gets bored/sees an opportunity to get more money elsewhere), there are more significant numbers who absolutely loathe both him and what he espouses.

I obviously have no idea, particularly four and a half years out, but I do think Reform popularity/reach is overplayed in both media and social media but if that’s wrong then we’re proper fucked

I worked in a small local ice-cream hut

So did they have to take part of the roof off?

Everyone seems to think that Reform will go after the Tory vote, but I'd argue their more likely to have success in the "red wall" seats. Reform taking the the working class vote, the Greens taking more of the middle class, Conservatives increasing from the abject lows, and you get a Reform-Conservative win.

Are the working class that stupid?

Prediction: The 4 seats have are the Reform high watermark.

They are good for 20%-ish at General Elections but not much more. Under First Past The Post they are going to struggle to win seats.

The Tory General Election campaign isn't going to be the clown like shit show it was in July, simply not that bad, not defending a 14 year record of non achievement, corruption and division.

I do think Reforms' blaming everything on the immigrants is going to wear thin over time, especally if Labour can do sensible stuff and push the topic down the agenda.

I do hope that Reform are the SDP (remember them) of the 21st Centuary and keep Labour in power for a decade.

Prediction: The 4 seats have are the Reform high watermark.

I can see them winning by-elections in this parliament.

The danger is that Labour follows the course they currently appear to be on of demonising immigrants- then there’s no reason not to pick the party that sounds harshest, which I suspect is Reform.

What is needed is a counterpoint to the existing narrative, probably based around the NHS and social care- but, they maybe too terrified of the media.

Fair point.

I think they've found their level, can't see them having 50-100 seat looking like a government in waiting. right now they are the great insurgents fighting the and breaking the system. Like the SNP after the 2019 election, but they declined as they came up against the realities of power, or at least of being an MP, having to do actual proper serious grown up politics.

The traditional Conservative* things like small state, de-regulation, free trade and a focus on the economy have all been torched by Boris "fuck business" Johnson, the TCA, Truss and then Sunak burning down the university sector (one of our key exports in a falling export sector).

The UK has failed to secure it's borders for what, the sixth time now, due to lack of state capacity to perform the inspections, and is also currently an outlier in Europe with it's 180 day visa waiver, which again is a reflection of a lack of state capacity to stamp people in and out again.

Choices made by the Tories (largely, but not exclusively around the type of Brexit they pursued) have lead to an increase in civil servants (as jobs done by Brussels now have to be done by the UK), and yet there is still a requirement for between 50-75,000 more civil servants if the UK wanted to meet it's legal requirements around border security.

Which I suspect means that the ground the right has to fight on that is least shaky is "brown people - don't you just hate them?" And I think that's going to find a ceiling - or maybe I just really hope it will.

Talking to people on another forum that literally venerate Tommy Robinson (a man whose world view my Grandfather and his brothers literally fought against) is extremely depressing however -but they're squarely in the white, male, over 50 with barely any education demographic, and that's finite.

*Other than the racism and endemic corruption that is

Talking to people on another forum that literally venerate Tommy Robinson

Bikeradar?

I do think if Elon and others start throwing a lot of dark money (as well as a massive social media platform) at Reform PLC we might find their electoral ceiling lifted a fair bit.

Why the fuck are you on a forum like that or is it the Porsche forum?

PistonHeads would be my bet

He was banned from pistonheads.

Went on a few UK Porsche forums and they really are full of neo Nazis, while the German ones seem a lot nicer and had people deliver me things in London in exchange for proper bitters such as banks beer.

The German lot seem to be more about doing stuff themselves, and together with other forum people. Very very hospitable too. We don't mention the war but we do talk about making sausages.

He was banned from pistonheads

As in dammit?!

How the fuck do you get banned from pistonheads?

Yes, as in Neil (yeah I know his real name, using his real name Vs his forum name feels that it requires an intimacy we do not have) as in Dammit. Can we please capitalize correctly ;).

No idea what happened, but was on here mention it and wondered what he did but not enough to go look. Piston heads cycling lot are quite fun to be around, petrol heads with similar feelings to me.

Not wanting to cause friction, if I am wrong I will apologise. Didn't mean to cast aspersions.