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  • I think the Reform vote will gain a bit of ground but will run out of people with “reasonable concerns” before they get to a significant figure. The Tories will chase them, but a) each time they move further right they’ll shed voters to the Greens and Lib-Dems, and b) will never be able to go far enough to stop the cunts going to Reform.

    Then it’s a case of what coalition would be possible? They’d likely need Reform+Tory+LD, and that group won’t work.

  • The thing that struck me about GE24 was that in the grand scheme of things there wasn't a huge difference between UKIP and Reform.

    To me that indicates a ceiling.

    Obviously it can change. But I feel that the RE media has a hardon for the "Reform making gains" narrative.

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