Tl;dr: if Labour wants to be the centrist party of the UK we're fucked. The appetite for progressive politics means they'll continue to lose votes from the left and fail to secure votes on the right.
Given the volatility of both the electorate and the first past the post electoral system when three or more parties garner twenty plus per cent of the vote, I don’t think anyone can predict how an election that is four years away will play out.
While you're obviously not wrong, I'm not sure what your point is. It certainly couldn't be that we should give up on looking at, studying, thinking about, and discussing these things?
Compass released polling and a report a few days ago on Labour's future in the current electoral climate. Guardian overview here: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/dec/08/labour-big-majority-is-fragile-and-it-has-weak-mandate-for-change-says-report
Tl;dr: if Labour wants to be the centrist party of the UK we're fucked. The appetite for progressive politics means they'll continue to lose votes from the left and fail to secure votes on the right.