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This, get used to your grinder and you'll quickly get a decent gauge of it. First shot might still not be tip top but likely drinkable (and likely better than what you'd get from many coffee shop!), but the next one will get you well into the ballpark if not there.
I genuinely have never found h0me espresso to be a faff and you really can get consistently good results without spraying from tiny bottle, WDT and shaking and so on and so forth. Just takes a bit of sticking to it at the very beginning and getting to know the equipment.
Also if spraying around is an issue, just ditch the bottomless PF, spouts save clothes and don't diminish the result in any way.
Having just started with home espresso, I can't comprehend how you can get a good shot first time with a different coffee every day. I just opened a new bag, and keeping the grind the same as I was reliably getting 25-28s shots before, I got a 15s shot this morning.
How can I try new coffee without repeatedly wasting 2-3 shots of every bag?