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That makes sense. Apparently it was hand delivered to the dump in a rucksack, as opposed to being put in the bin and then collected, which makes sense that they know which dump it is at. Would depend on how manhandled it was once it arrived, but presumably not too much, unless it's been directly driven over by a bulldozer.
Howells, 39, says that in the summer of 2013 he accidentally put the hard drive containing his bitcoin wallet in a black bag during an office sort-out and left it in the hall of his house. His then partner is said to have mistaken the bag for rubbish and took it with her on a trip to the dump, where it has been lost ever since.
The actual drive platters are remarkably resilient, and they are in a very well sealed box.
If you did find the drive and plugged it in to a computer there would be almost a 0% chance that it would work.
But you wouldn't be doing that, as you say it'd go straight to a hard drive recovery company that has the ability (and a clean room) to transfer the platters to a housing that hasn't been in a dump for 10+ years and there's a >99.99% chance that the data would be recoverable.
That's assuming it wasn't mechanically mangled by one of the claws of the bin lorry when it was compacting things as it rumbled down the road.
I'm still pulling data off drives that have been stuck in a damp dusty loft for years along with being bounced around in various house moves. Many are completely hosed but I'm getting data off drives that are coming up 30 years old.