Investment & Investing

The BTC act, as widely discussed and speculated on as it is, must already be considered to be priced in, and either the failure to pass the act, or the failure to follow through and actually create a ‘strategic BTC reserve’ (because why?…and because US could only fund such a strategy through even more debt) might prove to be the catalyst for the rugpull umder the current price. Politicians obviously say a lot of things to get elected, and this notional strategy might be more “vibes” than coherence

as long as you see them coming early

I see the attraction of this view, especially at a time where nearly all asset classes appear expensive in comparative terms.

However, for me at least, the chances of spotting an emerging bubble, getting in on it, riding the euphoria phase for a chunk of time and then getting out with significant gains, seems unlikely and more so considering the limited time I have left to achieve this and then enjoy the benefits.

If I was 25, maybe I'd think differently.

Market timing doesn't work for the majority of people which equally means that it will work for some, and whether that's by luck or judgement probably doesn't really matter.

Main holdings are in Blackrock gold and general fund and Ruffer gold Fund that have a mix of gold related assets (physical and derivatives) and equities (mainly large cap producers), I did buy a few 1kg silver bars 20 years ago when they were very cheap, as I liked the idea of having some physical but they are more of a curiosity than an investment. I try to keep my distance from the doomsday prepper crowd when it comes to things like that. Re: gold ETFs I have always tended to prefer the miners for their significant gearing on gold price increase (but works both ways on the downswings…), and I use interactive investor for investments in junior gold and silver exploration companies mostly on TSX venture exchange which is a wild ride casino type arena that has seen me take more losses than gains with 2022 and 2023 being extremely painful, but ultimately I believe the miners are historically and significantly undervalued relative to the price of gold currently and would hope to see outsized returns on those as reversion to the mean happens for the ratio (as long as that is not driven by decrease in gold price!)

I’d be curious to hear what others have done if they have gold in any form?

I have some of my portfolio in gold. I think the price will continue to rise in the future not least because the BRICS are moving away from holding dollars and have been buying up gold, and this looks like it will continue, if not accelerate.

I have a mixture of physical and ETFs. Ideally I prefer physical, but storing it has risks and costs - funds much easier from that point of view. Paper gold has its drawbacks too though. The total value of physical gold held to back the gold funds is something like 1/8 of face value. At times that ratio has been up to 1/20. So, if there was ever a time when you wanted to get your hands on 'your' gold, you might be disappointed.

There are models in between paper funds and holding your own physical gold, like Bullionvault, which claim to give you exclusive ownership of actual gold and store it securely on your behalf.

it's very possible that BTC will keep going. Just like gold and house prices.

I agree. We've seen massive, long term asset price inflation across a very wide range of asset markets.

Despite what we hear about cost of living crisis, etc, the rich, who buy most of these assets, have more money than ever, and want places to invest it, so they buy more assets. I don't see that changing any time soon, certainly there's no sign of any government policies to change it, so I expect asset prices to continue to rise.

Gary Stevenson was very good on this, he correctly predicted that covid would not crash house prices when most people expected it would.

There will still be volatility, and short term crashes, but I expect the longer term trends to be upwards, because there is so much money around looking for a place to go.

Not sure if I am reading this correctly. Your retirement planning is based on timing a bubble on gold? Seems quite high risk if I understand it!

Checked out Gary Stevenson's book 'The Trading Game', very entertaining listen on Spotify last month

I mean probably ahead of half the UK… 🤷‍♂️

I’m no domsday-er but I kind of think if you are going to own gold you might as well actually have it in small denominations and in your house or somewhere.

Otherwise ETF if you want to trade on the price of gold.

I would agree with you having participated and witnessed the last crypto bull run. When everyone was preaching adoption and prices reaching above 100k no one saw it coming. Feels eriely the same as the previous time we went into a bear market. Trading psychology will never change

MSTR back up to pretty much it’s all time.

As a newbie I don’t quite know how 212 is generating that as it seems to be live but pre market isn’t even open?

Edit clearly I was still half asleep. As it’s not an all time high.
My question still stands as to what is driving price fluctuations on 212 at this time??

They have an overnight market through the week. I don't know if it is just their customers or if it is a larger thing.
It's a bit volatile though, volumes are much smaller than in normal hours so it can swing quite wildly.
The 'pre hours' and 'after hours' markets have higher volumes and are a bit less volatile.

I wouldn't put too much weight on overnight share price movements. For MSTR it most likely a response to changes in the bitcoin price since the overnight market closed on Saturday morning, plus other news / sentiment / vibes from the weekend. Pre market opening around 9am gives a better indication.

So just fulfilling their own customers buy/ sells against each other maybe?
Wonder if there’s any mileage in booking silly buys or sells and hoping it fufills through those that buy/sell at best market?

I suppose there could be, but I'd generally avoid. A small transaction might work but I expect minimal volume means it's easy to move the market if you try any sort of volume.

The risk, of course, is to end up being on what turns out to have been the wrong end of the trade when the proper market wakes up.

I've just read their faq. Overnight prices come from blue ocean:

https://blueocean-tech.io/global-trading/

I’m no domsday-er

I’m having a doms day today after a tough race at Herne Hill yesterday.

Hmm interesting as what really alerted me to the price issue was I sold some the other day and a small number maybe 3 sold for half the average selling price.

Ha well I’m jealous

Annoying!
Always a chance of volatility, especially in those thin markets and around opening / closing. The way to avoid it is to use limits

Yeah luckily it didn’t affect much.
Maybe I’ll become a day trader on single shares ;-)

Well it was making sense to me until you said it out loud like that…

In the spirit of diversification I do buy a euro millions ticket every Friday.

But anyway I certainly don’t recommend this approach, I have tried to learn how to handle the spikes and drops over the last 20 odd years and generally got better at it (selling more on way up, not feeing decision regret when it continues on up without me on board, and overcoming my fear to buy when there are big drops after the spikes, but really seeing it as practice for an eventual mania type scenario where the biggest gains may be available).

I have begun to diversify and also re-reading the classics on value investing and stock picking which is what might be important in the 2030s (it has not really been in favour for a while with the momentum (and meme) driven investing that has recently dominated, but post crisis may come to be the best strategy).

Has it done ok for me - yes but not brilliantly
Would I have done better with a 60/40 stock bond index tracker managed fund - maybe
If I was not doing this would I have spent the last 20 years chasing hot markets and bubbles and lost money - probably, because I have a tendency to think I am cleverer than I actually am when it comes to markets

Night trader surely.

In the spirit of diversification I do buy a euro millions ticket every Friday.

lol

Oooft

Golf club fodder here but whatever...

What kinds of rates would you be expecting to get, after tax, if you had £500k cash to invest for a 4 year period:

• low-to-medium risk - this is not YOLO/FAFO money
  
• Assume 40% income tax
  
• Happy for up to 80% of it to be tied up for the full 4 years, but would like to keep 10% available at 1 years' notice and 10% available within 3 months
  
  

4% after tax?

Premium Bonds could gobble up £150k of it and give ~4.1% tax free and is almost instant access but that doesn't cover the whole lot.