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Not sure if I am reading this correctly. Your retirement planning is based on timing a bubble on gold? Seems quite high risk if I understand it!
t-v-
I mean probably ahead of half the UK… 🤷♂️
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Well it was making sense to me until you said it out loud like that…
In the spirit of diversification I do buy a euro millions ticket every Friday.
But anyway I certainly don’t recommend this approach, I have tried to learn how to handle the spikes and drops over the last 20 odd years and generally got better at it (selling more on way up, not feeing decision regret when it continues on up without me on board, and overcoming my fear to buy when there are big drops after the spikes, but really seeing it as practice for an eventual mania type scenario where the biggest gains may be available).
I have begun to diversify and also re-reading the classics on value investing and stock picking which is what might be important in the 2030s (it has not really been in favour for a while with the momentum (and meme) driven investing that has recently dominated, but post crisis may come to be the best strategy).
Has it done ok for me - yes but not brilliantly
Would I have done better with a 60/40 stock bond index tracker managed fund - maybe
If I was not doing this would I have spent the last 20 years chasing hot markets and bubbles and lost money - probably, because I have a tendency to think I am cleverer than I actually am when it comes to markets
GoatandTricycle
user116219
Back to investments and investing, my retirement planning is largely focused on waiting for a bubble as opposed to chasing bubbles that are already inflated and to that end I am mostly invested in gold and precious metal mining related funds and stocks (~50%) with some allocation to natural resource funds (~10%) and emerging markets (~10%) with remainder currently in cash. My hypothesis may or may not be rational or logical but is based on an expectation that historical cycles tying in with the significant debt issues facing developed countries does lead to a general currency crisis impacting trust in conventional investments and driving money into gold. Will not see good returns if I am wrong but happy to give it until the end of the decade to find out. Recognise that I have been negative on crypto vehicles which are to an extent supported by a similar mindset but I do feel that gold has more of a proven and enduring track record than crypto in such conditions (acknowledging it has had several thousand years in which to generate that track record, which crypto has not) and is less likely than BTC to become displaced by a new paradigm or to be subject to a loss of trust. Nothing wrong with bubbles from investment perspective as long as you see them coming early, get in early, recognise it for what it is, and have an exit strategy that is not over-ridden by emotions or suspension of disbelief around the likelihood of it continuing up and up (which is what I perceive to be happening in crypto at the moment)