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snottyotter
Thanks. Evidence from people on the ground is the most powerful. From that it's safe to say that the Russians will play dirty to win referendums.
They're not going to do a David Cameron and hold one only to lose it. On that basis I still think they will only try it in areas where they think they have a good chance of being able to get away with it. Would they be able to threaten and bully enough people to win a referendum in Lviv? I don't think they would, or if they did try, the degree of violence required would go beyond what they are up for.
At the end of all this the Russians want peace and an end to sanctions. I think they can make enough of an argument to get away with taking Russian speaking areas (and it's not about what's right but what the side with the power can get away with), but if they try it in western Ukraine, or other countries, they won't get sanctions lifted for ages, and that is probably not in their interest.