US Politics

Zelensky staked the future of his country and the lives of a generation of his countrymen for personal fortune and a seat at the table with the big boys, and he lost, catestrophically.

Could you expand on this? I'm not familiar with the events you're summarising there.

Frank has spent the last week posting almost exclusively in this thread.

invading other countries has no comebacks if you are strong enough. Google list of countries invaded by the US. Then do the UK.

The US lost in Vietnam. And in Korea. The US, UK and USSR lost in Afghanistan. The UK almost lost in the Falklands, and would have done so without help from Chile, the US and France. The UK didn't defeat the IRA, who were persuaded to stop fighting by peace activists. UK Forces deaths 718, IRA deaths 292.

It’s still a reach to say that having the misfortune to be invaded by your neighbouring country for a second time in under 10 years is a demonstration of narcissistic leadership.

Frank needs to take a break from the internet

Could you expand on this? I'm not familiar with the events you're summarising there.

OK - quickly as have to work, but in 2014 there was the Orange revolution and government was kicked out in a coup. The old governement had been in favour of co-operation and alliance with Russia, the new one wanted to pivot to the west and join EU / NATO.
The coup was basically a CIA operation - although there would obviously be some legitimate grievances they could work with, as there always are.
Fighting in Donbas area (East) started about this time - not 2022.

Zelensky came to power some time after as the compromise candidate. A native Russian speaker, from outside the political world - he could clean it up and get a peaceful compromise. But he went back on that and decided to go all in on EU/NATO. Why? Don't know, but the Panama Papers said he acquired a large overseas property portfolio.

Ukraine in NATO is perceived as existential for the Russians and always has been. The US has always known that, everyone has.

Minsk accords were meant to stop fighting in Donbas and work out a compromise. Merkel and Hollande admitted recently that they lied to Putin and negotiated in bad faith.

In 2022 Zelensky pushed forward with plans to apply to NATO so Russia invaded.

Peace talks in Turkey, mediated by Israeli ex-PM. Agreement reached - war to end after a few days.

Boris Johnson flies to Kiev and persuades Zelensky to rip up the agreement and keep fighting. What did he offer him? Who knows.

War continues. Lots of people get killed. Country gets utterly wrecked.

Zelensky didn't have to have the war and he could have stopped it at the outset. On several occasions he made choices that were not in the interest of the Ukranian people.

Frank has spent the last week posting almost exclusively in this thread.

Not exactly but it feels like it! Mostly answering questions

I see now that if everyone had just put Russia first like they should have all along, none of this would have happened. It's so simple!

he made choices that were not in the interest of the Ukranian people.

Right. Provided your definition is limited to the existence of people somewhere in Russian territory who speak Ukrainian.

If the Ukranian people want their own country rather than being Federal subjects 'best interests' might have a different definition.

Don't you see. Russia was forced to invade after an independent country had a protest against closer ties with them

It was for their own good. If only people would think of the poor Russians here.

The USA withdrew from Vietnam, we didn't lose it. We're 14-0 thanks very much

The UK almost lost in the Falklands

Really? How? Because the Argentinans fucked up and brought the operation forward allowing the British to reach the Falklands before the weather set in?

Or you mean that Argentina with it's well equipped, battleharded, professional military was no match for Britains weekend TA?

But yes, if France had carried on selling missiles things might have been different. I know no one wants to give Thatcher credit for anything, but imo the relationships she'd built and her diplomatic efforts did have an important contribution.

https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-68-putins-challenge-to

I remember Will sharing this at the time the full-scale invasion began in 2022. Still a useful primer on the events before 2022 (and before 2014). As ever, there are no 'good guys' here. But there are lots of bad guys.

Curious to see if anyone will paint Adam Tooze as MAGA / conspiracy theorist / Russian asset.

True. But I think it is the implication that Zelenski is the aggressor which has most riled people.

Minsk accords were meant to stop fighting in Donbas and work out a compromise.

Donbas that Russia had invaded and occupied (in addition to the Crimea). What compromise would have been suitable other than Russia fucking all the way off back to its own territory?

In 2023 Zelensky pushed forward with plans to apply to NATO so Russia invaded.

You seem to think that there's a link between these two events. Could you explain what it is?

It is worth reading that Adam Tooze link that sets it all out.

All this stuff being posted has some parallels with a simmering WhatsApp argument I'm having with an old, close friend of mine on WhatsApp. He has always been further left than me and more willing to believe stuff. He wanted trump to win because the Dems are committing genocide in Israel and trump isn't. He thinks zelenski is a US stooge. Etc and forever. The more I push, the more he hardens to a binary. When it comes up for discussion I am accused of supporting what is happening In Israel if I say I think Trump will be a bigger supporter of Netanyahu than Biden because there could be nothing worse than the biden administration for the people of Palestine. He seems to be driven by his hatred of the US and the left of centre parties that have compromised to get power. He is ardent anti fascist but has totally convinced himself that trump 2 will be like trump 1.

The first post apocalypse thing I will do is go to his house to say I told you so. It will be like The Road, just without the son or feel good factor.

What compromise would have been suitable

The ones Ukraine were negotiating and open to in spring 2022 but fell apart when the west were unwilling to provide security guarantees that were being asked for as part of the deal?

I think that was a reply to fab furry

without the son

because he is crying?

Yes it was, sorry

I don't think Frank was born an idiot, just that he's become one because he's gullible. Russia has unsurprisingly been doing some quite successful Ukrain-washing
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/09/13/media/right-wing-media-influencers-tenet-russian-money

I'm not going to do this because it's effort but; how has that article panned out. My vague recollection is that a lot of what is written here didn't quite pan out, and actually Russia was not as well positioned to invade as thought and that is why it wasn't wrapped up quickly.

Is it necessary to call him gullible and idiot because you disagree with him?

I probably disagree with him as well, but he clearly has a long track record of good faith posting.

If he is a Russian troll, is Adam Tooze? Is Jeremy Corbyn? Both held a pretty similar analysis.