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anyone who “knew” Trump was going to win having cleaned up at the bookies
I was pretty certain that Trump was going to win and did put my money where my mouth was, so made a few £ on betfair.
I set out my reasoning a few pages up on here a day or two before the election - that the polls always have underestimated trump's vote and that there was no reason to believe - other than faith - that it would be different this time. And that it wouldn't be as close as the polls were saying. I set it out here partly to see if anyone came up with anything I might have missed. There was one point someone made but I didn't think it was enough to change the whole hypothesis.
I believed that Harris was only going to win it if she was at least 3-4 points ahead in the polls and she just wasn't.
I didn't have a firm view on why she wasn't, as it wasn't necessary for my conclusion, but I did believe she was not a great candidate, and that genocide was probably a red line for a small but not negligible segment of the US population.
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Yep...
Just to clarify: this isn’t just the first time since WW2 that all incumbent parties in developed countries lost vote share.
It’s the first time since this data was first recorded in 1905. Essentially the first time in the history of democracy (universal suffrage began in 1894).
https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1854559598574784631?t=HWmVtMegtLpuznKN03OMTA&s=19
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frank9755
villa-ru
@Big_Ted
Over the last couple of years, around the world, the incumbents have lost, often considerably, taking the blame for Civid/Ukraine/inflation/fuel prices/ Middle East/immigration/whatever, even when they have handled some of these reasonably well.
With economy/immigration cited by voters as a major factor here, was this more inevitable than the widely predicted “too close to call” line (with the hindsight caveat plus anyone who “knew” Trump was going to win having cleaned up at the bookies and being too knee deep in considering new bike purchasing options to have time to post here)?