US Politics

Yes, I think that's the biggest part of the problem - that the 1% who take the call, sign up for the panel, etc are not representative of the 100%. Not for the population as a whole, but of their demographic segment - so they can't correct using the tools available to them.

Lying is then a second order of error laid on top of that.

I don't envy their job and can see why they all end up herding.

How would I place a bet that I think a state capitol building will be successfully invaded during the next week or two?
Like a mini Jan 6.

EDIT: Also keen to bet on a demand for secession as expressed by a Governor.

loving the bbc headlines over the last week or so .... " kamala harris has been out campaigning on women rights and methods of boosting the economy " then .... " trump has been campaigning for free unicorns for all and apartments on the moon for every us citizen " they say it with a straight face and without poking fun at the orange loon.

how long do people think it'll be before the final results are pronounced and the legal challenges are over ? i remember the hanging chads event in florida and the delays that caused.

Silver bulletin

Last and final update: 12:30 a.m., Tuesday, November 5. Happy Election Day! At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases. She did not win in 39,988 simulations (49.985%). Of those, 39,718 were outright wins for Donald Trump and the remainder (270 simulations) were exact 269-269 Electoral College ties: these ties are likely to eventually result in Trump wins in the U.S. House of Representatives.

538

Harris wins 50 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump wins 49 times out of 100.

50% chance that American democracy (such as it is) ends today then

Oh christ, there can be ties!? WTF happens then? Yet another thing to worry about

Trump wins in a tie.

I don't really know the process, but I also assume Trump wins any election that needs supreme-court rulings, given the composition of the court.

WTF happens then?

Votes in Senate/Congress I think?

50% chance that American democracy (such as it is) ends today then

I think that ship sailed some time ago, probably in 1963, if not sooner!

They have a written constitution so they came up with process for it over 200 years ago.

"According to the 12th Amendment, enacted in the wake of that divisive 1800 election, if no candidate gets a majority of the Electoral College votes, the new Congress, which would have just been sworn in on January 3, chooses the president. The Senate would choose the vice president."
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/04/politics/tie-presidential-election-what-matters/index.html

Based on Nate's simulation, the electoral college would be tied 0.33% (270 times out of 80,000), so pretty small chance. I'll put that way down my list of things to worry about today.

It's not an outcome that could result from any of the swing state combinations. Would need an exchange of 'safe' states.

Squeaky bum time then, here we go.

tells you plenty about Twitch users

I really hope the polls are incorrect and over compensating for Trump past polling mishaps. I definitely have the fear playing with the FT's polls tracker for the 7 swing states, especially when attributing those with larger poll margins.

https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/2024/polls/

American democracy

At least the Constitutional Republic vs Democracy argument can be settled.

Can we really do another 4 years of Trumps insanity ?

Don't worry he won't be limited to 4 years this time.

Don’t think I’m mentally prepared for another trump win but deep down know it’s inevitable. It’ll be a hell of a shitshow.

They'll probably end up with President Vance at some point due to health reasons...

Scant consolation.

President Vance at some point due to health reasons...

I was kind of banking on President Harris for similar but that hasn't happened yet.

My only bit of hope is that out of something like 120 million Republican voters, there must be a significant number who see Trump and will either not vote or vote dem this once. Surely. They're not all fucking mental.
(though i suppose they would also need to be pennsylvanian ideally).

President Vance

What's this Trumps lacky like?