-
You have the first part of the problem: Trump supporters not agreeing to take part. But the pollster doesn't know they are trump supporters when they tell them to fuck off. They can correct for demographics but not for this variation within any and every demographic segment.
it seems to me genuinely unlikely that's what a large number of respondents do.
I first came across the phenomenon of poll respondents being unwilling to admit to antisocial behaviour way back in 1992, when it was used to explain how the polls missed John Major's victory.
The argument was that the desire to be liked is a powerful one in human interaction and most of us tend to say things that we think will make the person we're talking to like us, or respect us, a bit more, rather than less. So if you ask people questions where one answer doesn't reflect well on them they're less likely to admit it even if it is true.Eg, do you drop litter? Do you pick your nose, how often do you drive above the speed limit, have you ever driven after having alcohol? Or the doctors' one: 'how many units do you drink per week'? Which they are alleged to double the answer to, to compensate for systematic lying.
frank9755-
They can correct for demographics but not for this variation within any and every demographic segment.
If this is difficult to account for, how can you be so sure that this time they're under-correcting and not over-correcting or even luckily getting it right? What magic crystal ball do you have that they don't?
itsbruce
Not to my knowledge. It's an anonymous phone call and completely optional. I just can't see statistically significant numbers of Trump voters agreeing to take part in the poll then lying to avoid some faceless caller thinking they're a bit of a twat. That might be the case for a few, of course, but it seems to me genuinely unlikely that's what a large number of respondents do.