US Politics

Wonder if this entices people to vote, or the opposite? If the whole vote is a fraud, why vote?

There will be those that will think its rigged and vote so if its for whomever, its in your favour and will be glad its rigged but will complain bitterly if they lose

I hope those that think its rigged wont vote too

What the polls looking like today? Since this is basically a gamble at this point, what's ppls bets?

Trump.

Reason being I understand that the polls don't correct for the 'shy Trump voter' effect and he has historically done better than polls have expected. Harris would have to be a few points further ahead to have a good chance.

I think it'll be the other way around this time. Lots of women voters, who the polls don't pick up, will be voting for Harris to stop Trump.

Everything I've read on US polling says it's a) harder to do than UK polling because of the sheer size of the country and b) the methodologies used by pollsters vary wildly in terms of accuracy.

the polls don't correct for the 'shy Trump voter' effect

They absolutely do, or try to. The pollsters have been working on their methodologies massively in recent years since fucking up so badly with him before. Problem is, we don't know, and they don't know, if they've over- or under-corrected.

Yep, after massively under reporting the Trump vote in 2016, then under reporting it again in 2020, I'm hoping for an over correction this time. They would look like idiots if they under reported it for a third time!

They absolutely do, or try to

What I heard was that they don't try to.

Apparently their approach is different from the UK. Here they try to predict a result taking factors like that into account. There the focus is on reporting clean numbers, allowing people to overlay their own assumptions, should they wish to.

There the focus is on reporting clean numbers, allowing people to overlay their own assumptions, should they wish to

LOL, that is the complete opposite of what I've read about the polling in the US, including from the pollsters themselves. They have absolutely under-reported Trump in previous years and they pretty much all admit that. I think they're over-compensating this time to 'regain some lost credibility'.

Any links? I'm trying to get to the bottom of it.

What I heard was that there was one poll which asked 'who are people like you voting for?' or 'who are your friends voting for?' and that was more accurate.

https://www.270towin.com/2024-countdown-clock/

There was a good piece about polling in general I posted a few pages back. Plus this from pollster Nate Cohn was interesting.

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Nate Silver comes with a lot of caveats, but this might be useful

Similar to that, is this:

https://benansell.substack.com/p/hostage-to-fortune

Fuck - i hate AI generated art/videos

Interesting reading that persons thread or whatever it's called. Also the fact that I can view it rather than being immediately pointed to a sign up page.

I don't go on twitter so haven't seen a lot of these talking points, but also found this an interesting insight into the young tate male: https://x.com/njhochman/status/1818518316375240968/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1818518316375240968&currentTweetUser=njhochman&mode=profile

Thanks, these were interesting articles and, inevitably, the more you get into it, the more complex it gets. But I see lots of discussion of herding, sample weighting and segment turnout assumption tweaking, but nothing that looks to me like it is trying to correct for systematic lying on the part of a chunk of respondents, eg shy Trump voters.

If you were a shy Trump voter, wouldn't you just say you didn't want to take part in the poll when they called you? I would totally just do that.

Tucker Carlson is now saying there is no evidence humans invented nuclear technology and it was demons

Well, nobody can be wrong about everything, and this only confirms that.

(It's really very sad.)

He's a grifter plain and simple and any wild shit he says is just to drive engagement. Speaking about him only plays into his toxic shite imo

Tucker Carlson

Is the new info wars guy

According to Mary Nightingale on the ITV news just now Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are hitting the campaign ale for the last time today.

Meanwhile, an interview with voters in a diner on BBC news had a customer saying he hates and despises everything about Trump as a person, but Trump’s not a Socialist like the other lot.

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are hitting the campaign ale for the last time today.

Best comment/typo this election ;-)

I'm sure plenty do, but the evidence is that plenty do not.

I'm not sure I get what you mean. Do shy Trump voters take part in the polls and say they'll vote for Harris when actually they're going to vote Trump? If so, how many of them do we think there are? More than there are, say for example, women? Enough to totally skew the polls, which is why pollsters are correcting for it?