The fall of the Tory party

The media will give her a harder time than they would have Jenrick.

I won’t lose any sleep over the unfairness of that, if it helps Labour’s cause.

She has to out-right and out-nut Reform, an impossible task. The party is a much smaller voice now in the commons also.

i agree fwiw, but i don't think it matters. i say this because plenty of labour mps specialise in being rude and tetchy if asked questions they do not like. when it comes to squeemish social issues trust is so low in the media class as a whole being that way often finds an audience for better or worse

it's very easy to see her pushing labour right on a variety of current social issues.

My (very limited) hope is that she makes Labour belatedly realise this and they finally start standing up for vulnerable people, at least they will be pushed to have a stance rather than just defining themselves in opposition

if we're to consider the democrats and starmer labour both vocally being in favour of sharing electoral stratagy and from examination of messaging also seem to be acting the same. when pressed with trump moving right on immigration (which he's done since his first campaign) democrats moved to match them, implimenting a stronger, more regressive border policy than originally proposed in 2020 election. they also moved from biden whole heartedly supporting trans rights to a muted position on defering to "the rule of law" (a trump position of "states right to decide").

with both tories and labour scared of reform, it's likely both parties move closer to farages tune than define against it. the next election is a long way off, lots of room for movement in political currents. but as it stands, especially if trump loses next week. i do not see labour breaking from this sort of model.

i join you in hope tho, with the lead generation i suppose anything can happen

Laura Kuenssberg excited at the obvious coming war of wokerists vs rural farming pensioners:

Another senior party figure suggests the Budget has already sketched out an obvious path telling me, “the government has positioned itself as distinctly post-new Labour.

“It is workerist, it’s not very nice to farmers or rural areas – with pensioners and farmers you see that you have a coalition where the Tories can get back to 250 seats.”

There is no doubt she is a politician that stands out, another Conservative says, referencing an old TV ad: “She has the potential to be Heineken – reaching the parts of the electorate other Tories cannot.”

But her style has risks - “like a can of Heineken, if shaken up too much, it can froth everywhere,” and make a terrible mess. Let’s see – Kemi Badenoch will join us exclusively, live on BBC One tomorrow.

I think it's more likely that Labour will stay the middle ground if the Tories push further right. Its where the majority is

Sometimes I get the impression politicians mainly conservatives, just think about their Westminster bubble and forget that there’s a whole country that needs change and betterment. But they seem so insular that they just seem to think about themselves and THE party.

with pensioners and farmers you see that you have a coalition where the Tories can get back to 250 seats.

If this were true, the Tories would never have less than 250 seats

But she won't be asked any questions, it will just be berating labours position

Fewer than 500,000 people work in agriculture in the UK.

I doubt many of them are swing voters.

Badenoch is divisive, I think this thread et al proves that, either she's great or terrible, take your pick. Marmite.

Problem is, the Tory party needs to be united and she's the worst possible person to do this, she's just going shout at them and expect everyone to fall into line, to do as they are told. This Tory part ain't going to do that!

18 months tops and it'll end in tears, leaving problems to come.

full disclosure I have previously called Rees Mogg a haunted pencil in this thread.

That's pretty great.

My suspicion would be that Badenoch is going to have a constant battle with Jenrick as the internal Reform candidate for the Tory leadership- if she tries to tack to the centre he will scream betrayal, and he will be constantly working to engineer a fresh leadership challenge based on any sign of wokeness*.

*Sanity and or decency

A bunch of old racist twats up and down the country will not vote for K.B.
They don't even like their fellow Europeans! In electoral terms the only gainer will be Falange and his reformers.

Most insightful post there's been for several pages.

Thank you!

My view of Badenoch is that she is so bullish at times she drops the ball by saying what she thinks which is often inappropriate. There are numerous occasions of her having to clumsily backtrack or deny the meaning of her comments

Badenoch is marmite… racist

She just told LK that skin colour should be no more commentable on than eye colour or hair colour.

I'll try find transcription for her exact words here later.

I presume you're joking?

So rather than trying to draw a line under Partygate by doing something sane like apologising, it's the laws that were wrong.

I am

QED on my previous comment. She just can't help herself from saying(and believing) the wrong thing.

if she tries to tack to the centre he will scream betrayal, and he will be constantly working to engineer a fresh leadership challenge based on any sign of wokeness

And if she tacks even further to the right, are they going to be playing leapfrog in their attempts to outdo each other?