US Politics

No offence, but are you sure you understand what soul's point is?

Maybe re-read the their two posts.

I mean, that's why I asked what the point was, so no. I don't think I do understand what soul's point is.

Yeah I was more running what I see as all the possible (but realistic) routes to a Harris victory.

I haven't heard much made of group 2 this time, but in the last election I remember hearing interviews with older Republican voters who were struggling with the idea of voting for him. I wonder how that group breaks now? I.e. have they been redpilled, or did the capital riots and all those people who worked with him speaking out move them?

My point can be boiled down to this:

I don't believe your original statement (Not being obviously horrendous arseholes who won't change much worked pretty well for 'Labour' here, so it’s perfectly possible over there too.) can be applied to a more entrenched two party ballot.

I provided lots of points as to why but this is as short as I can make my point.

OK, fair enough. I do, but it's no biggie if you don't.

No worries. It was a genuine question.

In the US you have 4 choices

1. Don't vote
   
2. Vote Democrat
   
3. Vote Republican
   
4. Vote 3rd party/ independent
   
   

In the UK in the last election you had

1. Conservative
   
2. Labour
   
3. Lib dem
   
4. Green
   
5. Plaid
   
6. Reform
   
7. SNP
   
8. Other/Independent
   
9. Don't vote
   
   

In the US not voting and Indys can help Republicans or Democrats but those are tiny numbers and still result in one of two choices.

In the UK while TPTP massively favours the two biggest parties, votes can get pulled from a much wider range of parties and you have more more factors at play.

That said I think that Soul is underestimating the number of swing voters (c. 18% according to an NYT study).

That said I think that Soul is underestimating the number of swing voters (c. 18% according to an NYT study).

That's a surprisingly high number. Are those swing voters self defined or genuinely swing between D & R per election? I wonder how many define themselves as such but actually end up falling the same side of the coin each time.

^^ Or the swing voters tranche includes those who have voted in at least one of the last x number of elections, but don't vote every time?

Fake videos are going to be a nightmare over the next few days/weeks

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/01/georgia-russia-election-disinformation

From re-reading, maybe "undecided" is more accurate.

Note: Swing (also called “uncommitted” or “undecided”) voters are voters who have not committed to either Harris or Trump, as self-described in the poll.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/24/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-oct-30-2024.html

The depressing bit is this:

For swing voters, the top issues are inflation and jobs with immigration and health care tied for third.

Where I don't think enough progress has been made by Harris.

This gives some interesting background to the interference law suits we can expect from the Magapublicans
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dx_npZ9SHtk

The Times reckons that Harris is ahead in enough swing states to win the election.

If the non-swing states vote as expected, Harrisonly has to win the 3 rust belt states (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) to take the win as that gives her exactly the 44 electoral college votes she needs. In that scenario, she doesn't need any of the sunshine swing states.

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Be careful in your beds, everyone. You could be next and it could be so much worse.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/01/tucker-carlson-demon-attack

Honestly.

I was attacked by one that left chainring marks all over me. All I was doing was fixing my bike.

Poor old Tucker seems to have completely jumped the shark

Shame he cleared the tank.

Surely he doesn't believe it? He's just grifting the Christians. If he really believes it he has to go on my list.

Maybe he had to explain to his wife why he had cuts that looked to be from fingernails on his side.

So his next move is TV evangelism? That checks out, what a fucking tool. Amazing that people fall for this shit, it demonstrates the absolute contempt that Trump, Carlson et al have for their audience/fans/followers/whatever.

Please form an orderly queue, make sure you have your credit card ready. 🐄🐄🐄🐄🐄🐄

if he really believes it he has to go on my list.

If only there were a real life ignore list.

#lfgssforPresident

I was asleep with my wife and four dogs

something unseen that left claw marks on my sides.

Definitely a demon

If only there were a real life ignore list.

I tried to start a thread about this. Absolutely bombed.
https://www.lfgss.com/conversations/371251/

.

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Still manages to surprise

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