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ELbowloh
The problem with that argument is that the UK isn't a locked two party system. There were significant numbers of transient votes who moved from Tory to Reform, Tory to Lid Dem and Lib Dem to Labour.
In the US, views are significantly more entrenched and many people will have decided to vote R or D based on decades of familial or community influence. Those people will very rarely, if ever, change their views. If anything, the way social media creates and promotes echo chambers means that these views are more entrenched than ever.
I can't see a way Trump doesn't win right now.