US Politics

Anyone looking really hard for some optimism maybe, just maybe, Trump has been normalised this time around and so there are a lot less quiet Trump voters then the last couple of times.

And since the polls have been so wrong regarding Trump's vote previously, they are overcompensating for him this time round.

And maybe in households where the man is a strong pro Trump, when asked their preference, women are less likely to publicly go against their husbands, but will secretly vote for Harris in the polling booth.

Maybe.

Here's fucking hoping, Andy. 🙏

Trump's gonna win. Harris is offering very little apart from vibes and not-being-Trump.

Not that Trump is offering anything either, but he's throwing a whole lot of red meat to his base. I don't see what Harris is doing to motivate the Democrat vote.

I don't see what Harris is doing to motivate the Democrat vote.

She got Mumford and Sons to play for her last night.

Probably not all of the original line-up

I think the polls are wrong and Harris will get a thumping victory.

Here's an 18 year old Trump supporter waving his machete. He went to a Florida polling station with his mates to intimidate Harris supporters. https://nypost.com/2024/10/30/us-news/18-year-old-arrested-for-wielding-massive-machete-at-voters-at-florida-poll-site/

Finger crossed eh

I’m pretty sure Harris will win, maybe even beat Biden’s 2020 tally.

Harris is offering very little apart from vibes and not-being-Trump.

Pains me to say, but I think the Dems may pay the price for this strategy decision.

They’ve invested heavily in 1) motivating their sympathisers to go vote and 2) converting the undecided and some trump voters. They’ve highlighted what is, to them, the most obvious and important distinction: their sense of morality and views of public service are antithetical to trump’s, whose views they find abhorrent.

That will motivate their base to go vote, and it might convince the undecideds and a few specific trump-inclined voters (like Puerto Ricans now), but the problem is that everyone already knows what trump is like and what he stands for, he’s hardly hidden it. If people aren’t put off of voting for trump after 8 years of him showing the world who he really is, then there’s something else motivating them to vote for him. There’s no point hammering that issue if it’s not converting votes.

The dems needed to give people strong reasons to vote for them instead of focusing on why not to vote for trump. Biden’s campaign carries a lot of the blame for this. Kamala’s campaign tried hurriedly to frame her as a desireable president (energetic, even-keeled, devoted, competent) but they haven’t promised solutions to the issues that turned many voters towards trump: the working classes’ economy, the culture war, and a generalised feeling of insecurity.

The truth is that everyone who isn’t rich is worse off than their equivalents in the 90s and early 00s. Inequality has grown incredibly, services catering to the public have gotten more expensive and dropped significantly in quality, and people are afraid of being hurt. The democrats haven’t painted out the radical structural changes needed to counter that, probably because lying through their teeth about accomplishing the impossible isn’t an acceptable strategy to their base. Sadly that’s where trump has the edge, and people who are hurting financially, and want society’s infrastructure to function better, and want to regain a sense of safety and security in their daily lives will vote for him out of desperation (lacking a better word). Those are the votes that democrats could have taken but haven’t made a strong enough push for.

Harris has a huge ground game, much bigger and more costly than Trump's. And the number of early votes has been huge. It seems likely there'll be a bigger turnout than usual, possibly fuelled by Roe v Wade. That fucker Trump boosted this trend yesterday by saying he would protect all women, "whether they want it or not". Even his supporters can't ignore this or blame the media for it.

That could be driven from pro gamblers making money on the margin between polymarket and other bookies

I still think Harris will win and it won't be close. Not being obviously horrendous arseholes who won't change much worked pretty well for 'Labour' here, so it’s perfectly possible over there too.

What's your reasoning on the polls being so tight? I mean you'd expect the Dems to at least be polling 3 or 4% higher in the popular vote, with the electoral college too close to call, but they are neck and neck in all polls atm

The problem with that argument is that the UK isn't a locked two party system. There were significant numbers of transient votes who moved from Tory to Reform, Tory to Lid Dem and Lib Dem to Labour.

In the US, views are significantly more entrenched and many people will have decided to vote R or D based on decades of familial or community influence. Those people will very rarely, if ever, change their views. If anything, the way social media creates and promotes echo chambers means that these views are more entrenched than ever.

I can't see a way Trump doesn't win right now.

Another argument against your POV is motivation.

Voter turnout has increased in the last three or four elections but that's largely been driven by white rather than ethnic minority voters. Those white voters statistically vote R rather than D.

I can't see a way Trump doesn't win right now

1. Young women and suburban moms vote Harris
   
2. Traditional Republicans who held their nose and voted Trump last time vote Harris this time off the back of the fascist stuff and the number of GOP lifers who are backing Harris
   
3. Trump young men and newly adopted black and Latino men cba to vote because it's traps day
   
   

I'm still not that hopeful. Feels like toss up at the moment.

I am choosing to believe Harris will win comfortably. Solely because I want a few days of optimism before the world turns very dark next week.

Lid Dem

Is that the pro-helmet party? :)

I reckon the polls are lying. I linked to an article a couple of pages back about how and why. And tbh, I've long been a believer in the old adage about opinion polls being there to shape public opinion, not to reflect it.

The problem with that argument is that the UK isn't a locked two party system.

It de facto is. Dems probably rightly figure if they don't promise to do anything radical like stop Israel bombing its neighbours to fuck, etc., any waverers or disaffected Republicans will not fear voting for Harris this time. It's probably why they're parading the Cheneys around right now rather than focusing so much on how batshit the MAGAs are. That was precisely the 'Labour' position in the last GE, to wit, promise not to rock the boat and keep disaffected Tories at home rather than fearful of any change of Government.

Apparently there is a significant number of lifelong Republicans who are "never Trumpers". Not sure if that's been factored in

The 2s don't need necessarily to vote Harris, but not vote at all.

keep disaffected Tories at home

There was a drop in voter turnout but the right (Tory + Reform) made up 40% of the vote this time around. In 2019, it was 45%. Looking at Labour, their vote share was 33% this election and 32% in the last election.

Therefore, the swing to the right for Tory voters played a significant role in the majority Labour enjoyed.

My point is that this isn't possible in the US where the entire spectrum of the right (or left) remain locked to voting for their preordained team.

Of course there's nuance to the UK election like constituency efficiency of vote share but fairly extreme gerrymandering in the US already accounts for that.

I hope Harris wins but I really don't think you can draw election strategy comparisons between the UK system and the US.

I hope Harris wins but I really don't think you can draw election strategy comparisons between the UK system and the US.

Well, I disagree - they are adopting an extremely similar strategy. Of course it isn't identical because there are significant differences in the political systems, but the appeal to undecideds/disaffected right wingers is broadly shared between the Dems and 'Labour'.

Also, the way the votes turned out in the UK GE doesn't need to reflect the strategy adopted by the parties, so I'm not sure what your point is there.

Anyhow, I've just spotted the Telegraph reporting Harris with a big lead in the early voting. Perhaps it's not all doom and gloom after all.