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This is a good listen/read https://freakonomics.com/podcast/how-to-predict-the-presidency/
This is a good listen/read https://freakonomics.com/podcast/how-to-predict-the-presidency/
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jaw
@chez_jay
I am not a betting expert, but I don't think bookmaker odds for a long-running contest (esp with only 2 options) tell you that much in isolation - as they may be significantly weighted in order to reverse the pattern of earlier betting, so risk of bookmaker loss is minimised. They should not be read as probabilities.
(edit: I guess people did say this before, but still.
However a graph of average odds over time is more interesting e.g: https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
)