US Politics

When I was helping Kyle, I got to know tons of people in Trump's
inner/outer orbit. I've kept up with many of them even though our
politics do not align. My sources tell me they are getting nervous
because of heated internal discussions about post-election contingency
planning. I hate that I have to say this but when Trump loses - and he
will lose - you should expect and be prepared for widespread,
coordinated MAGA violence.

MAGA is so thoroughly brainwashed and gaslit that Trump being defeated
(again) will likely sever any remaining connection to reality. To them

• violence is righteous - because they're convinced Trump losing is an existential threat to their way of life.
  
  

They will NOT accept defeat. Prepare yourselves.

https://x.com/DaveHan06/status/1848006292415074425

That would be illegal, as I understand it, so he's paying people to sign a petition to say that they intend to register to vote.

Which I guess means that anyone can sign up an get paid.

But will probably be used as "evidence" of voter fraud / stolen elections, or some utter fabricated nonsense.

I think the idea is to gather contact details for unregistered voters in key swing states that care about first and second amendment rights. Then they will receive a constant stream of emails claiming Harris is going to take away their guns and pets and give them to Haitian immigrants and it will be against the law to mention racism or something something.

Would be interesting to see the large folder of small print that accompanies the sign-up.

Probably a paragraph in there waiving any right to a court trial in connection with musk and his companies. Would save Tesla a lot of money, for sure.

How will Juggalos vote?

It's actually well worth a watch.

Pretty good odds of winning for a $1m lottery. One person has been given a cheque so far. Maybe a second person by now.

Hopefully a non-citizen legal alien from a developing country wins the next cheque.

Labour party members went to the US as volunteers to help the Harris campaign. Trump has filed a legal complaint. Stephen Bush in the FT says that if Trump wins it "will be the defining moment in the life of the Labour government." https://www.ft.com/content/820ab317-a479-4c1f-8538-c9b2dc263ef1 https://archive.ph/wgkAY

Obviously they can volunteer but you've got to wonder how stupid Sofia Patel (Labour Head of Operations) would have to be in order to post on LinkedIn to say that 100+ volunteers were going to the US to help the Harris campaign. You know the orange one is vindictive, so why poke a bear, even if you think he's unlikely to win?

Trump way ahead in the betting odds at the moment.

Have you got money on this or something?

The FT tracker is at stalemate. I think it's been that way for ages https://ig.ft.com/us-elections/2024/polls/

Yet Farage is welcome any day.

Here's The Economist's current prediction for what it's worth.

1 Attachment

NYT has Harris two percentage points ahead, whatever that means. To all intents and purposes, they're essentially tied.

What has to be a crumb of comfort is that these polls are generated by telephone canvassing. So not only are people picking up a phone call from an unknown number, they're saying 'yes' when asked whether they want to take part in a survey. Who even are these freaks?

Polling's a mess - they underestimated Trump so much last time(s) round, they've put in all kinds of changes in methodology to cover the Trump equivalent of 'shy Tories' and change their weightings re: propensity to vote (Trump voters were previously being discounted as they didn't think they'd vote). So, they haven't a clue if these new, untested methodologies will actually work.

The winner, i.e. not voting at all, will be at 40%. Both parties will be at about 30%. It's always this way https://www.ft.com/content/a29d4815-2a77-4acc-9375-c441ed7ca5bb

To all intents and purposes, they're essentially tied.

This.

With all these characters* coming out for Harris then surely it’s all over?

*actors not characters

1 Attachment

Bookmakers tend to be more reliable than pollsters

1 Attachment

Bookmakers calculate their odds based on how people are betting as much as how they think it'll go.

And they need to hedge. Long odds are risky.

If only Rishi would've given a speech on how great Bobby Moore's cock was, things might be looking very different for the Tories right now.

This. The odds are set so that the bookmakers maximise their gains, irrespective of the actual outcome.

If it is a 50:50 then their is a lot of value in a bet on Harris at the moment