The fall of the Tory party

You are reading a single comment by @rodan and its replies. Click here to read the full conversation.

•

Dammit in reply to @rodan

I agree, they’re in a mire. The membership (and the fumbled leadership contest) has tied them into fighting Reform for a share of votes that will never win them power, and that’s even if they could succeed on that front, which they can’t because Reform will always outflank them on the right for the moron vote. Meanwhile the voters they lost to the LibDems and Labour, who would have been much more easy for them to win back, will continue to be appalled by the Tories and lose the habit of voting for them. Eventually they’ll be joined by those who stayed home at the last election when they see that the Tories have no intention of taking things seriously and winning them back.

The result, if they can be nimble enough, will be the LibDems hoovering up the disaffected centre-right and threatening the Tories’ position as the second biggest party.

100% agree. The only thing I think that might be interesting here is the Greens and the formerly Tory NIMBY vote - if the Greens continue their policy of NO NO NO NO to all development then that might become the (somewhat surprising) home of a lot of formerly Tory voters in the Shires who don't want new housing, new infrastructure, new factories and facilities near their village thank you very much.

•

rodan in reply to @Dammit

Yes the Greens are very interesting on that front, the disaffected ex-Labour left who make up a decent proportion of their swelling support make very strange bedfellows with the rural, ex-Tory NIMBYs you describe, however I reckon they might find a more natural fit with the LibDems eventually.

@dubtap

In a parallel universe we are still waiting for a GE with inflation falling and an interest rate cut

That’s the sort of thing you could mention in a comment on Conservative Home, if you really wanted to upset them.

•

frank9755 in reply to @rodan

Politics is all about making these coalitions, though.

The Greens managed to pull that off last time, winning in both urban, previously Labour constituencies and rural Tory ones.

Johnson's great achievement was to build a coalition that spanned the elite and enough working class voters in Labour red wall seats to give him a majority.

Next time it will be harder for the Greens in the Tory areas, though. Virtually all of their second places, from which they will select their targets, are in Labour seats - so I'd expect them to double down on a positioning to the left of Labour. And Labour has left an awful lot of space there.

If Tories lurch further to the right under their new leader the best outcome for them is if the centerists they lose are split between Labour and LD. The nightmare is if one gets them all as more electorally efficient.

About

Avatar for rodan @rodan started