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I agree, they’re in a mire. The membership (and the fumbled leadership contest) has tied them into fighting Reform for a share of votes that will never win them power, and that’s even if they could succeed on that front, which they can’t because Reform will always outflank them on the right for the moron vote. Meanwhile the voters they lost to the LibDems and Labour, who would have been much more easy for them to win back, will continue to be appalled by the Tories and lose the habit of voting for them. Eventually they’ll be joined by those who stayed home at the last election when they see that the Tories have no intention of taking things seriously and winning them back.
The result, if they can be nimble enough, will be the LibDems hoovering up the disaffected centre-right and threatening the Tories’ position as the second biggest party.
100% agree. The only thing I think that might be interesting here is the Greens and the formerly Tory NIMBY vote - if the Greens continue their policy of NO NO NO NO to all development then that might become the (somewhat surprising) home of a lot of formerly Tory voters in the Shires who don't want new housing, new infrastructure, new factories and facilities near their village thank you very much.
Dammit-
Yes the Greens are very interesting on that front, the disaffected ex-Labour left who make up a decent proportion of their swelling support make very strange bedfellows with the rural, ex-Tory NIMBYs you describe, however I reckon they might find a more natural fit with the LibDems eventually.
In a parallel universe we are still waiting for a GE with inflation falling and an interest rate cut
That’s the sort of thing you could mention in a comment on Conservative Home, if you really wanted to upset them.
rodan
I agree, they’re in a mire. The membership (and the fumbled leadership contest) has tied them into fighting Reform for a share of votes that will never win them power, and that’s even if they could succeed on that front, which they can’t because Reform will always outflank them on the right for the moron vote. Meanwhile the voters they lost to the LibDems and Labour, who would have been much more easy for them to win back, will continue to be appalled by the Tories and lose the habit of voting for them. Eventually they’ll be joined by those who stayed home at the last election when they see that the Tories have no intention of taking things seriously and winning them back.
The result, if they can be nimble enough, will be the LibDems hoovering up the disaffected centre-right and threatening the Tories’ position as the second biggest party.