The fall of the Tory party

but they're at or about at their current limit in terms of vote share per the polls

I think we've got to be careful about assumptions like these.

I definitely think the media overblow Reform, given they're basically where UKIP were. However, while Farage is charismatic to a certain audience his appeal feels like it has an age limit.

In Europe you've seen a youth move to the right. Get a young charismatic leader X no change in youth mobility X disinfranchisment of young men and I think we've got a clear risk.