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My theory, to be checked against actual votes, is that the moderate Tory MPs miscalculated.
That's how Margaret Thatcher got in. She was supposed to be just a stalking horse against Heath, and nobody thought she had a chance. Heath's team downplayed her chances to bolster their man's image (at no risk, so they thought). Her team also downplayed her chances, to persuade moderates who would never otherwise have backed her to give her their vote.
Here we are.
itsbruce
@rodan
My theory, to be checked against actual votes, is that the moderate Tory MPs miscalculated. Tugger’s votes went to Jenrick to thwart Badenoch, while some of Jenrick’s votes went to Badenoch to counteract, and they both sailed past Cleverly. This can’t have been their plan, there were easily enough One Nation MPs to put one of their favoured candidates in the final two.