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Israel cannot win a victory in Lebanon.
They cannot occupy the state
Five days ago, the Jerusalem Post website posted an article titled "Is Lebanon part of Israel's promised territory", to which the answer was apparently "Yes". It's been taken down now, probably in respones to outrage within Israel, but as Haaretz explained a few months back, the people behind that movement have had other successes. As Netenyahu's cabinet has become increasinly populated by right-wing extremists, they now have friends there. Hell, one of them is Netanyahu's brother-in-law.
Netanyahu himself isn't that crazy, but they'll be pressuring him into launching a "temporary" re-occupation of South Lebanon, and hoping that's just a start.
Israel cannot win a victory in Lebanon.
They cannot occupy the state and all they can do, by killing loads of innocents, especially children, is create more hatred and inspire more fighters to take them on at some future date.