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With the members? I'd say jenrick, cleverly and tugs in that order.
MPs would likely go cleverly, jenrick, tugs.
Grumpy_Git-
Thanks for that assessment - interesting.
That suggests it kind of seems wide open, with jenrick and cleverly most likely to make the last two. Tommy Tugger seems to have no chance and MPs likely to vote tactically to keep Badenoch off the short list.
Presumably Jenrick would be favourites to beat Cleverly. The you gov poll a few weeks ago said otherwise, but reasonable to believe things have moved on since, more people heard of Jenrick.
The odds on betfair are
Jenrick 1.67 hot favourite
Badenoch 3.5
Clev 14
Tugs 20If it ends up with Clev vs jenrick then Clev is good value and Badenoch worth laying (horrible thought!)
But the conference speeches could still shake things up if anyone is able to do a David Cameron job.
frank9755
Interesting. Presumably the MPs know how popular KB is with the membership, and unpopular with the electorate (and them). Not sure who’d win out of Jenrick vs Cleverly/Tommy Tuggers.