The fall of the Tory party

Jenrick again. Marvellous. They really are the Turkeys voting for Christmas.

I think the jenrick "popularity" is just attempting to destroy bad-enoch

To be honest I think they could choose anyone and they are still fucked.

Completely agree but badenoch seems to be as hated by about as many Tory MPs as much as she is adored as the second coming by the other half

Half? I think she has the support of no more than a quarter of the parliamentary party, if that.

isn't the likely outcome a membership vote between Jenrick and Badenoch?

Which anecdotal reports suggest KB is likely to win?

"Support" and "half" were mentioned indicatively. And I meant generally rather than specifically to the leadership bid.

As an example, I think half the people in my team at work can't stand me.

Cleverly and tugendhat votes will coalesce to a single person and probably guarantee a spot.

It's whether jenrick can accumulate any more votes to stay ahead of bad enough.

Interesting. Presumably the MPs know how popular KB is with the membership, and unpopular with the electorate (and them). Not sure who’d win out of Jenrick vs Cleverly/Tommy Tuggers.

the purpose of our inquiry is to suss out what kind of opponent the party’s next leader will be: the fights they’ll pick, the parliamentary votes they’ll force and the hurdles they’ll heave into the path of better politics. And I believe the best way to do that is with a game involving two words. As you glance across the contenders, ask yourself this: are they a moron or a bastard?

From here.

Kemi Badenoch Talks like a bastard but walks like a moron

Quite.

With the members? I'd say jenrick, cleverly and tugs in that order.

MPs would likely go cleverly, jenrick, tugs.

Kemi Badenoch Talks like a bastard but walks like a moron

Very little functional difference between fuckwits and arseholes. Not all fuckwits are arseholes, but at the end of the day, every arsehole is some kind of fuckwit.

Clearly the biggest problem the UK faces.

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How will I have workplace affairs if everyone is working from home? That's where the bloody wife is.

On the one hand, some people have a good response prepared. On the other hand, it's to a man who can't tell the difference between a party and a work event.

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FFS. They already knew each other from childhood - they are both at the party as they are back at their parents's village for Christmas New Year. Thus her mother says something like 'You remember Bridget - she used to cavort naked on your lawn'. It's the very first scene.

(Could be different in the book, didn't read it).

The biggest FFS, though, is anybody seeing Johnson as Darcy, rather than Baron Harkonnen .

Yeah, you totally owned Boris Johnson right there.

Sad cunt even has his Hugh Grant face on, fucking wanker

Tough but fair!

Thanks for that assessment - interesting.

That suggests it kind of seems wide open, with jenrick and cleverly most likely to make the last two. Tommy Tugger seems to have no chance and MPs likely to vote tactically to keep Badenoch off the short list.

Presumably Jenrick would be favourites to beat Cleverly. The you gov poll a few weeks ago said otherwise, but reasonable to believe things have moved on since, more people heard of Jenrick.

The odds on betfair are
Jenrick 1.67 hot favourite
Badenoch 3.5
Clev 14
Tugs 20

If it ends up with Clev vs jenrick then Clev is good value and Badenoch worth laying (horrible thought!)

But the conference speeches could still shake things up if anyone is able to do a David Cameron job.

Tugs hasn't "done" anything and doesn't have public breakthrough. He needs a proper (shadow, ha) ministerial position for a decent amount of time. Still im a random dude on the internet.

Bad enough or Kendrick winning would give labour a free pass to keep being fucking useless.

Cleverly or Tugs may force them (edit:labour) to do politics and give up the freebies but would risk being a functional opposition.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Hard to see a 'good' result any way by any objective standards, but if I can make a few quid by calling at least part of the result, that feels like a more achievable goal!

What l said about the yougov poll above is wrong as it looks like they didn't run that pair - jenrick vs clev.
https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Internal_ConMembers_August2024.pdf

One thought is to lay jenrick and back tugs now on the basis that jenrick needs to do a good speech to keep his hot favourite position and might not, and tugs could improve his odds by saying something half decent - and I think he is meant to be reasonably bright and a good speaker, no?

But maybe that's trying to be too clever, might be better to wait until odds settle ahead of the next round...

If you're throwing money I'd put a fiver each on cleverly and jenrick.

I wouldn't call tugs bright. He's just another entitled rich boy.